Replies to post #13595 on Titan Medical Inc (TMDIF)

[Geo2014]

I disagree. ISRG plans on being a player in the ever-expanding MIS / single-port market. Yes Titan should have a fairly easy time selling their product to the small to medium sized hospitals/surg centers but they certainly won't limit themselves to "niche-marketing".

[Lurker05]

Hey Ryan, I want to take you to task on this, cordially of course. I have seen you reference this cap of $20-30 twice now. It is not that I do not believe you; frankly it may even be a little generous for the relatively near future (12-24 months). But could you please elaborate as to why you believe this?

I am generally interested as I have seen it posted by other folks here, some in the medical/med device community who see a litany of outside use cases for the single port other than the targeted surgical procedures.

I would imagine if points are valid then I would imagine the growth potential is well above what you are calling. Furthermore, it assumes Titan would have one device, and never develop additional devices to grow their portfolio.

Perhaps you say that assuming an M/A (in which case please state that) or you are only speaking to a specific time frame IE. 12-24 months out?

I ask because some of us are truly LONG, and assuming Titan does what Scotland didn't, and vote Aye to independence, then years down the road the growth potential is much much greater.

Thanks in advance should you take the time to respond.

[BelizeMe]

Ryan071236,

I appreciate your take on single port and your belief that it will only be a niche' market. It it true that SILS has taken longer to break out than most thought. If you went to any gyn, gen, or uro meeting over the last 5 yrs it seemed the main push was on SILS.
The main reason for this was the instrumentation. It was almost impossible and NOT intutive (sorry for the I word) for surgeon to operate the flexible, rotating tipped instrumentation that some manufacturers came out with. Only the best coordinated, and that does not always translate into best surgeon clinically could use two of these instruments at once. They only could use one along with one standard straight stick instrument.
What SPORT will do with the improvement of the robotics will allow them to much more easily operate both instruments at once and in much greater degrees. Those that already use da' vinci will have a very easy transition to single port and those new to robotic lap surgery will have no longer a learning curve than those training on da'vinci and I would argue even easier as you are only working with two vs. four arms. Set-up will aslo be multiple times easier and faster for staff and surgeons.
So if you believe robotics will continue to grow expedentially as costs decrease SPORT is in a very good position.
I am sure there will be cases where a hospital will bring in the add-n SILS from Intuitive if they already have a newer system but there will also be a strong business case made that still does not answer the problem of immobility for the da' vinci. We don't know the price of the SILS add on for Intuitive. If expensive the case may be made that you could have two robots, one being SPORT and one da' vinci that could be operating at the same time and increasing hospital revenue more efficiently.
In regards to the PPS only getting to $20 in the next 3-5 yrs I wouln't be in it if I believed that. Also not sure why you think Stryker would be the one to acquire.... becuase they overpaid for Mako Surgical at a share price that was an 86 percent premium over its trading price the day before the deal was announced? There are many companies, medium and large that could be players and would seemingly over pay for an acquisition of Titan. Covidien acquired New Wave surgical for 5 x revenue and many early investors made 30-40 times their investments. As I have said, I do not believe Titan will get acquired before an FDA clearance and launch in the US. This takes ALL the risk of the table for an acquiring company and will make price much higher. At that early point you can't use simple calculations based solely on sales for a price, it is as much about "how much do you want me" as others certainly will. I believe they will take the route of a Mako; Clearance, Limited launch in US, expand several times..... and then see where they are as far as goals for selling. Over this time we may see some of the executives cash out and change based on their career stage or goals and new blood brought in with extensive experience to continue growth.
BelizeME