Real confirmation will be a purchase order from TransCanada or similar
If Mr. Bigger simply speaks positively about the test and talks in a forward-looking way about business development, "a successful test with their first major client," expectations of further business, more NDAs, a new pilot client, and so on - then in my view that is still not enough for the market.
At this point I am already convinced that it works profitably at a commercial level. I think this because of the preponderance of evidence, and because the alternative would require conspiracy and deception on the part of management. But clearly the market does not think in the same way as me. And also, quite clearly, the remedy for this is simple: a purchase order from TransCanada, or another serious financial outlay from a company that shows commitment to the product.
Anything short of that will leave space for bashers, and those fearful of it not working.
On the other hand, real evidence that this has commercial acceptance (such as in a purchase order) I expect will send this thing soaring.
As a side note and for the record: my view is that TransCanada will before October purchase the equipment. I think this because that is the only option they have now, short of rejecting the tech. And I also think that all this was predicted quite well by Mr. Bigger and management, and that, in fact, they already know now that TransCanada intends to make the purchase. I believe that STWA designed it this way from the beginning, to create buzz and establish a positive basis for further development. The way the contract was structured would strongly indicate this. Finally, I think all this represents incredible confidence in the technology and a ballsy move by management, both of which bode very well for STWA's future.
But I am curious: AISI or anyone else, do you genuinely think there is anything that Mr. Bigger or anyone can say that would be perceived by the public as evidence of the acceptance of the technology by industry? I'm suggesting that there's nothing they can say, that the market needs an order. But I would love to be convinced otherwise.
By the way, another thing I'm curious about: common sense tells me that if the TransCanada test was not working very well, Kinder Morgan would have found out about it pretty quickly and would not have bothered. I think this because I'm just assuming that these people know each other, and would spend time together informally. I would find it hard to believe that the KM folks would proceed with doing business with STWA if they didn't do a simple channel check, make a few phone calls, or mosey on over to TransCanada friends at the PEG Conference, and ask: "OK guys, is this a POS or what?" and expect an honest answer. I just find it a rather absurd scenario to think KM would be going into this as a roll of the dice. Can anyone who has worked on deals in a comparable industry, or who has relevant experience, discuss whether my sense of this is accurate or way off base?
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