So if you scroll through my past comments I did indeed do the meth and I did it with 2.262 billion OS and 15 advertisers at 25cpm which is low on both since no one has done this 25cpm yet.
But now I will be generous and do it at 2.5 bil OS.
We thought costs were going to be 530k per week. With around 230k being shipping costs, and another chunk of that being printing costs.
Benny stated that now they have TRU deal they ship to one source and try trucks deliver, this saves tremendously on shipping, he mentioned even 10shipping containers is only 30k. And printing even with the bags is cheaper than expected. So I instead of shooting for what they probably are paying per book .30, chose to highball costs at .40 which is 400k per week of books.
Cpm goes from 25-35 but since I already low balled the advertisers and high balled the costs, I will again low ball the cpm, we know no one has bought 25cpm yet, so nix that, also 33, 34 and 35 just because, so 26-32 avg is 29.
14 * 29cpm avg = 406k which is breaking even, and I used the unlikely numbers as worst case senario. Now in 3 months, they filled 14 spots (WITHOUT USING TRU as leverage! And he said number 1 question was where are they getting distributed. Also with Kris Longo by HIMSELF, and it was stated that now he has help and Benny can help as well if needed) so that's 5 spots per month? And we have 6 weeks left to secure more advertisers and he has help and now they can use TRU as where the books are going, but again I'm going to low ball their efforts and say they only have 5 weeks, so let's say 6 more advertisers 20 total, and then they give up and stop working for nov and dec books, (which by the way every week forward from mid September they have the ability to slide in the new advertisers. So you can say 1 a week increase until full.? 10-12 weeks which means full blast in 2015 even if they have trouble getting advertisers.)
So 20 advertisers which is still a low ball yet again.
20*29cpm = 580k - 400kcosts = 180k week profit. = 1.44 mil profit for nov dec. * 20 for market cap / 2.5bil = .0115 pps. Fast forward end of year if they never got another ad = profit 9.36 mil. 187 mil market cap. And let's say it's 3bil now just for fun is still .0624 which is roughly 35 bagger from .0018. So for every grand I invest by next November it could be worth $35? It's possible, they could fail. But Remember those were ALL low balled.
If he got 12 more advertisers 26 total, then double those numbers. If costs are 300k instead of 400k, then increase by .006 more pps in dec.
let's run it one more time with medium likelihood scenarios.
Nov-jan at 2.5bil OS
350k costs.
25 advertisers
30cpm avg.
And then up to 30advertisers in feb as that gives them another 4 months from this point to get a total of 16 more advertisers I think is fair. And extrapolate out to next nov. So increase OS to 3bil.
350k costs.
30 advertisers
30cpm
So math:
25*30,000 = 750k-350k costs = 400k week profit time 3 months. 4.8mil * 20marletcap. = 96mil / 2.5bil. = .0384 by jan! Which is a 21 bagger from .0018.
Then feb - nov 30*30,000 = 900k-350k = 550k = 19.8 mil profit in 9 month *20 market cap = 396mil. /maxed AS 3bil STILL Is .132 for those 9 months. but wait I forgot to add in the earlier profit.
19.8 mil for 9 months and 4.8mil for the first 3 months. So .144 by next November. But as most companies hit those market caps in advance as people see where growth is happening those .10+ is possible after the second 10q posted as people start to buy based on future value. This is why I think even at 3bil OS this will be .10 stock by June 2015.
And yes it could hit $1 in 3-5 years without a R/S with these kinds of revenues, and that's not even maxed out numbers for GSL.
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