Jobless Claims Released On 7/31/2014 8:30:00 AM For wk7/26, 2014 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual New Claims - Level 284 K 279 K 305 K 295 K to 320 K 302 K 4-week Moving Average - Level 302.00 K 300.75 K 297.25 K New Claims - Change -19 K -24 K 23 K Highlights Jobless claims are mixed with the latest weekly data showing gains but the moving averages at very low levels. Initial claims rose 23,000 in the July 26 week to 302,000. But the prior week is a standout, revised 5,000 lower from its initial reading to 279,000 which is the lowest reading since before the prior business cycle in May 2000. The 4-week average is also a standout, down 3,500 to a sub 300,000 level of 297,250 which is the lowest of this business cycle, specifically going back to April 2006.
Continuing claims tell a similar story, up 31,000 in the latest data which are for the July 19 week to 2.539 million. But the 4-week average is down 9,000 to a new recovery low of 2.535 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at a recovery low 1.9 percent.
The weekly timing of auto retooling is always a wildcard in the claims reports for July, but the Labor Department is not noting any related statistical noise this year. Though popping back up in the latest weekly data, claims are trending convincingly lower and are pointing to tangible improvement underway in the labor market.
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. Data Source: Haver Analytics
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