Replies to post #31137 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[dmlcento]

So what should we all do? Sell and leave right now? If we did, who would you have to opine with? I always take consistently negative people's writings with a grain of salt, because I always wonder why they would continually "waste" their time coming on these sites and feeling the need to preach to others. Just FYI, I don't necessarily trust the people who are always positive about a stock either. Please tell me why you feel the need to keep coming back, day after day, to tell us how this stock and the management sucks?

[HDGabor]

NCE will be denied

Could you post any case where the court ruled for FDA's (or USPO's) favor regarding "moiety" vs "ingredient"?

My reference:

#30800

[rafunrafun]

You're basing this on the recent nightmarish events that happened to AMRN. I can't really fault you, because there is nothing else you can base your predictions on, but..... You can't take a trend and say that it will continue. There are so many more factors involved other than to say "it happened recently and it will keep happening". You can't really say that because the FDA found a way to screw with the SPA, they will find a way to screw with Reduce-IT, that's comparing apples and oranges. Your theory doesn't factor any one of the countless possible occurances that may cause AMRN to do a 180. We may get one US Senator's ear, who may demand immediate actions, FDA may wake up and smell the coffee, due to political pressure or inside pressure or more scientific developments, Reduce-IT may have early posative results, there are a bunch more. All it takes is one and we will get a 180. Am I saying that one will happen? I don't know, but I would be crazy to rule any of them out. If one of those does happen, we'll go up at least 5 fold.

[Whalatane]

Lad
I'll just address the Reduce it part of your vent/ rant ..." Naive to think Amarn has a clear path ...no one can block it etc "

Reduce It is being run independently by a company called Pharma Net . Amarin finances it but has limited control . It's monitored by Dr Bhatt ..A highly respected Cardiologist / Scientist from Brigham Young I believe , and complies with all the FDA guidelines for a double blinded clinical trial

So it's not going to be blocked ....if it is stopped early for efficacy as we all hope ..then it may be criticized for being underpowered ( not enough patients for long enough ) or it may be criticized because of the placebo used ( JL , STS and others have explained how this criticism can be dealt with ) but as long as the results show a P value of less then .05 and there's a narrow confidence interval , results a considered stat sig etc etc ....the results will be accepted and respected .
( am not a scientist but that's my understanding of the bio stats involved )

As HDGator ...mentioned ..this is an " event " driven trial ...how many heart attacks etc .... That's what matters .."hard events " . V either lowers them when added to Statin therapy or it doesn't .
We just need to find out before they run out of cash :)

Kiwi

[jessellivermore]

lad...

"tell me why I'm wrong.

Since you apparently are fluent in what was happening a year ago, and were familiar with the board "clowns", my guess would have to be you were expressing your opinion at that time. Wonder who you might have been.

So what's the point? Are you suggesting shorting the stock at this level? Buying puts? As a self confessed gambler, this looks to me to be bad advice...You could be facing gambler's ruin at any upcoming inflexion point. The big money will be made on the long side..the fix always heads to the big money side.

Some of your comments seem intelligent, eg. "Since Dec 2012 after GIA announcement, the stock has been the leading indicator for every single disastrous event the company has had."

So what.. this is just whats happens to every biotech..biotech share prices are driven by events, and when there is no positive news the PPS will always trend lower. There are many of us that do not think the NCE will be granted and have stated so publicly. I do not think they will get the NCE, and do not think it's important.

So why do I think you are wrong? Number one most of your message is just recitation of past events. It is much easier as Nick Teleb points out, to come up with explanations of how Black Swan events occurred, than to predict the future. Most of us are not good at predicting the future..I'm willing to bet you aren't very good at it either..

":>) JL

[sts66]

Stock has been trading between $1.40 and $1.80 for > 4 months - what does yesterday's drop of a nickel tell you? To me, nothing, volume is low, just HFT nicking fractions of pennies from each other, and no real news to move the price one way or another until Jenkins issues his decision on the SPA.

Yeah, I know AMRN blew their chance to compromise, but that still doesn't mean the FDA is going to get away with the crap they pulled, especially since they PO'd PFE in their NCE decision too, again disregarding guidelines. You think PFE ain't leaning on Senators and Congress with every lobbyist they have right now? That decision directly impacts us too, same situation (almost).

IMO the "path to R-IT" is clear, but the results are not guaranteed - science would indicate it should be a clear positive result, but we won't know for sure until we see the data. We all have a lot of dead money right now, and likely for at least another year, year and a half, unless NCE and/or SPA is reversed. I can wait, don't really have a choice, not going to turn paper losses into real ones when the odds of the bet paying off are better than 50:50. Patience pays off - I bought another stock several years ago, at least a year before I ever heard of AMRN, went into the red almost right away and stayed red, but over the last 2 quarters the company has done a 180 and as of yesterday I'm now up 50% - gains I would have lost had I been impatient.