Replies to post #95288 on NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[changes_iv]

I Need Help: keep up that "Thinking Out Loud:". I am bookmarking them...full of good advice!

[I Need Help]

Update to this morning's "thinking out loud":

I stand by most of my analysis, but I apparently missed that there is tremendous support at $4.11 to $4.15. When I posted this morning, the price was rapidly falling on low volume, and was at $4.14. Well, that price pretty much held for most of the day. Despite the drop in price, most of the activity appeared to be at the Ask (buying). I can't explain this, but that's what I observed. Chock it up to MM activities. Basically, there was tremendous distribution of shares in a very narrow trade range today ($4.14 to $4.15). There was a little slippage in price at the very end of day.

Volume of 129,517 was O.K.

The price will probably move in small spurts until bottoming out. I think the range I outlined this morning is still in play; but, with the support in price at current levels; there is a reasonable chance, the price is already bottoming. If so, this would be tremendous confirmation for the LONG case. A very shallow pull back; then, probably back to test recent highs.

I am keeping my powder dry; but, prepared to jump back in very quickly.

[I Need Help]

On 7/24 I did some technical analysis and posted this:

Thinking out loud:

I'm still thinking the most likely scenario will be higher lows and higher highs.

Last short term low was $3.82. Going to start getting support at $3.98. So, a guess, bottom between $3.82 and $3.98.

Assuming no news and normal technical correction.

...

Bottom probably in from 1 to 3 sessions.

Decent volume would likely speed things up. Really large volume, and I would start wondering about news; but, very unlikely--especially with yesterday's volume.

I'll continue to monitor for myself. Would prefer to trade with a little confirmation. Just like top is tested a few times; likely, same will be true of bottom.

Reversal likely will be due to oversold condition, bargain hunting (including institutions), technical trading, and shorts covering (profit taking for them).

I think there are lots of reasons for NNVC not to sell off too sharply. Especially, improving news fundamentals and institutional ownership.

I have taken another look, but still have pretty much the same conclusions.

Since this post, it appears the bottom will not be in place for awhile. Looks like the bottom will get tested a few times before recovery starts. Indications of a failure would occur if $3.82 falls; then, likely we could go back to the prior range of trading--$2.90 to $3.50 (approx.).

My thinking: 1) very high probability that a new higher range cycle will develop ($3.82 - $4.70 (about)), 2) Significant news, as always, could be the game changer.