NDAs would be between STWA and its clients, wouldn't they?
I think all your points make sense except the idea that STWA, TC, and X Company would get together and sign a trilateral NDA. That doesn't make sense to me. STWA says it has 9 (or 11??) NDAs with other companies. We don't know what the content of them is. But they would just be between STWA and X company - I don't see why TC would or should be involved.
However, the main point you say makes a lot of sense to me: everything hinges on what TC does. Once something is worked out between TC and STWA, I suppose yes, the orders would simply come - what would be stopping them at that stage?
The amusing thing about this is that theoretically it could happen any day now. Though I guess it's more likely to happen at the end of the pilot program, end of September.