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bladerunner1717

05/26/14 12:11 PM

#178399 RE: linhdtu #178397

linhdtu,

Thanks for your thoughtful reply.

But I would remind you that the globalization of all forms of capital means that these national and nationalistic concerns are becoming less and less significant, even for the xenophobic Chinese.

Also, according to Hurun, there are 358 billionaires in China, second in number only to the United States. Not shabby for a "Communist" country. LOLOL

I suspect that as time goes on, the distinction between "domestic" and "foreign" will become more and more blurred.

Bladerunner

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zipjet

05/26/14 12:44 PM

#178404 RE: linhdtu #178397

Thanks Lin,

That is very interesting. There are many companies in the US that are investing heavily in China. Ford Motor is betting its future on China.

That is not a bet I would make. And after reading your post, it reinforces my view.
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DewDiligence

06/01/14 4:04 PM

#178641 RE: linhdtu #178397

Story in today’s NYT supports your China thesis:

#msg-102742062

There is, fortunately, another way to look at this problem. When investing to exploit The Global Demographic Tailwind, it’s generally safer to focus on companies who provide small- and medium-ticket goods and services rather than big-ticket items that are more likely to become entangled in political pushback and retaliation. For instance, drug/biotech companies—which sell mostly small-ticket items to a large number of people—are generally safer investments than IT and natural-resources companies. Some industrial companies such as 3M (which makes thousands of small-ticket but essential items) also fit the bill.

Another way to exploit The Global Demographic Tailwind with less risk of political retaliation in China is to make goods and services that are used to produce exports to China but are not directly sold there. MON and DE are examples of this kind of ‘TGDT’ beneficiary: they play a critical role in the massive exports of soybeans to China by growers in the US and South America.

Feedback welcome.