Replies to post #16692 on Tonner One World Holdings Inc (TONR)

[majorpain]

Voices, one of the reasons I actually read and respect most of your posts is due to the technical analysys. I am not a technical investor/ trader and I think if I had been in the past there are alot of opportunities I would not have taken advantage of.

I am a gambler, a risk taker and a passionate believer so I will not even try to give you any analysis and projections other than this.

I believe owoo will secure large national and global distribution for the dolls. That's my story and I'm sticking to it! ;)

[MrHowell]

VOR - you are certainly in the ballpark with your estimates. Although it doesn't look very promising for OWOO, you do cover long term PPS as delisted as I see that coming much sooner.

Heard no news of a reorder from china
.
One could only hope that some of the $500k was used to pay off that ugly debt.

Bottom line the Dagger is in deep and the wound is fatal!

I would like to STICK your post but I only get one and I just used it on Strings post. I did do a cut and paste for future reference.

Great post - await the response from OWOO

[Voices of Reason]

10Q is out - let's see how things staked up to my short term forecast - 10Q results shown in bold for comparison purposes after my initial forecast:

Short term Forecast
Outstanding shares = Low of 30 million / High of 50 million (1st quarter 10Q) - 10Q = 25.8 million**

**see subsequent events below

1st Quarterly Sales = Low of $20k (flat to 4Q), High of $40k (double) - 10Q = $2.3k

Gross Margin after cost of goods = $4k to $8k (20% gross margin to remain flat) - 10Q = negative $717

Assets = Hi/Low of $0.6 million (I do not expect any meaningful change) - 10Q = $0.47 million

Quarterly Operating Expenses = Low $1.0 million to a High of $1.5 million for the quarter (expected to be slightly higher based on NY Toy Fair and HEB launch) - 10Q = $0.55 million

Quarterly Interest expense = Low/High of $160k (I expect this to be flat - an increase is expected due to further new debt created partially offset by better financing promised by the $500k infusion) - 10Q = $415k

Working Capital deficit = Low of $4.0 million/ High of $4.5 million (attributed to ongoing cash drain to fund operations)
Convertible notes = Low of $0.6 million to a high of $1.0 million (anything in this lower range would be outstanding and a proper use of the promised $500k infusion) - 10Q = $4.1 million

Company shares repurchased = Low/High of 0 (the company would be foolish to attempt this at this time) - 10Q = $0

Regarding the convertible debts - last financials there were 46 convertible debts for about $1 million, less a discount of $0.4 million = $0.6 million. The current quarter shows that the convertible debt increased to $1.2 million. After accounting for the $0.42 million discount, these convertibles now stand at $0.86 million.

More notes:
We are in default on the $30,000 note payable at March 31, 2014

During the three months ended March 31, 2014, we issued a total of 692,053 shares of our common stock

The good - Decreased accrued interest payable by $183, decreased convertible debentures by $22,217, decreased debt discount by $8,911, decreased derivative liability by $124,501

The not so good - Increased debt discount and derivative liability by $173,000. Increased convertible debentures and prepaid consulting services by $60,000.

Subsequent events:
To fund our operations subsequent to March 31, 2014, we incurred additional indebtedness totaling $139,632, consisting of convertible debentures totaling $135,632 and short-term advances of $4,000.

Subsequent to March 31, 2014, we issued a total of 23,963,687** shares of our common stock: 39,668 shares for unissued common shares; 16,200,000 shares to our founder, officers and directors for services valued at $972,000; 340,000 shares for consulting services valued at $20,400; and 7,384,019 shares for debt conversion of $68,529.

We do not have sufficient cash on hand at March 31, 2014 to fund future operations.

I could not find the $500k advertised infusion but am still digging thru the financials....

[Voices of Reason]

UPDATED REPORT CARD/PREDICTIONS

Tagging onto my post from earlier (May 15) in the year, I thought it might be fun to see where we are at 6 months later:

Benchmark
Share Price = $0.0151/share (May 15)
Outstanding shares = 21.8 million (April 14)
4th Quarterly Sales = $20k
Gross Margin after cost of goods = $4k (or about 20% gross margin)
Assets = $0.6 million (Dec 31 - cash, inventory, prepaids, equipment)
Annual Operating Expenses = $3.3 million (or average $0.8 million per quarter)
Annual Interest expense = $0.6 million (or average $155k per quarter)
Working Capital deficit = $3.6 million (Dec 31)
46 Convertible notes = $1.0 million (Dec 31)
Company shares repurchased = 0 (Dec 31)

Longer term (end of year) Predicted
Share Price = Low of Delisted/Grey, High of $0.10 (between now and Dec 31)
Outstanding shares = Low of 50 million / High of 200 million (4th quarter)
Annual Sales = Low of $40k, High of $160k
Gross Margin after cost of goods = $8k to $32k (20% gross margin to remain flat)
Assets = Hi/Low of $0.6 million (I do not expect any meaningful change)
Annual Operating Expenses = Low $3.5 million to a High of $5.0 million for the year
Yearly Interest expense = Low/High of $0.7 million
Working Capital deficit = Low of $5.0 million/ High of $6.0 million (attributed to ongoing cash drain to fund operations)
Convertible notes = Low of $1.0 million to a high of $2.0 million
Company shares repurchased = Low/High of 0

Results
Share Price = Low of $0.0021 (yesterday), High of $0.06 (May 28) - very close to par value.
Outstanding shares = 68.3 million (3rd quarter) - expected to grow to the mid-range of the prediction by year's end
Annual Sales = $72k (thru mid-November factoring in the subsequent HEB sales) - approaching mid-range prediction
Gross Margin after cost of goods = ($1) (not including unknown cost of sales numbers for subsequent $37k HEB order) - gross margin non-existent
Assets = $0.543 million (thru Sept.) - on target with prediction
Annual Operating Expenses = $3.7 million (3 quarters) plus one more quarter (estimated at $0.7 million) = $4.2 million - on target with prediction
Yearly Interest expense = $1.7 million (3 quarters) plus one more quarter (estimated at $0.5 million) = $2.2 million - way over target prediction
Working Capital deficit = $5.4 million (thru Sept) - on target with prediction
Convertible notes = $1.2 million (thru 3rd quarter) - on target with prediction
Company shares repurchased = 0 - on target with prediction

So what does this mean? For me, the Company is pretty predictable - low sales, low margin, high expenses, high debt.