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Friday, May 16, 2014 9:24:10 AM
Benchmark
Share Price = $0.0151/share (May 15)
Outstanding shares = 21.8 million (April 14)
4th Quarterly Sales = $20k
Gross Margin after cost of goods = $4k (or about 20% gross margin)
Assets = $0.6 million (Dec 31 - cash, inventory, prepaids, equipment)
Annual Operating Expenses = $3.3 million (or average $0.8 million per quarter)
Annual Interest expense = $0.6 million (or average $155k per quarter)
Working Capital deficit = $3.6 million (Dec 31)
46 Convertible notes = $1.0 million (Dec 31)
Company shares repurchased = 0 (Dec 31)
For the short term forecast, I have inserted what I believe to be the expected high/low range - I am looking to see if you concur, or have your own forecast:
Short term Forecast
Share Price = Low of $0.0075/share, High of $0.03 (between now and May 31)
Outstanding shares = Low of 30 million / High of 50 million (1st quarter 10Q)
1st Quarterly Sales = Low of $20k (flat to 4Q), High of $40k (double)
Gross Margin after cost of goods = $4k to $8k (20% gross margin to remain flat)
Assets = Hi/Low of $0.6 million (I do not expect any meaningful change)
Quarterly Operating Expenses = Low $1.0 million to a High of $1.5 million for the quarter (expected to be slightly higher based on NY Toy Fair and HEB launch)
Quarterly Interest expense = Low/High of $160k (I expect this to be flat - an increase is expected due to further new debt created partially offset by better financing promised by the $500k infusion)
Working Capital deficit = Low of $4.0 million/ High of $4.5 million (attributed to ongoing cash drain to fund operations)
Convertible notes = Low of $0.6 million to a high of $1.0 million (anything in this lower range would be outstanding and a proper use of the promised $500k infusion)
Company shares repurchased = Low/High of 0 (the company would be foolish to attempt this at this time)
Longer term (end of year) Forecast
Share Price = Low of Delisted/Grey, High of $0.10 (between now and Dec 31)
Outstanding shares = Low of 50 million / High of 200 million (4th quarter)
Annual Sales = Low of $40k, High of $160k
Gross Margin after cost of goods = $8k to $32k (20% gross margin to remain flat)
Assets = Hi/Low of $0.6 million (I do not expect any meaningful change)
Annual Operating Expenses = Low $3.5 million to a High of $5.0 million for the year
Yearly Interest expense = Low/High of $0.7 million
Working Capital deficit = Low of $5.0 million/ High of $6.0 million (attributed to ongoing cash drain to fund operations)
Convertible notes = Low of $1.0 million to a high of $2.0 million
Company shares repurchased = Low/High of 0
Please let me know your thoughts.
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