Replies to post #177383 on Biotech Values

[Summer2762]

The problem with probabilities assigned to a single incident is that someone can never know whether he/she was right based on the outcome of that incident alone.

I was not surprised to see SYNERGY fail but I was really surprised to see OGXI down this much. If everybody expected the trial to fail, why did it drop this much?

After the detailed analysis, I now expect TEVA drop OGX-011 after a compensation agreement with OGXI ($20-30M). At this valuation, I don't know if that it a good thing or bad thing.

I also expect OGXI partner OGX-427 asap. Something similar to what THLD did.

The co raising money at $60M market cap would be suicide.

[DewDiligence]

OGXI phase-2 in bladder cancer misses primary endpoint with HR for OS of 0.86:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oncogenex-announces-results-phase-2-130000318.html

The PR tries to disguise the failure by talking about subgroups and other stuff.

[DewDiligence]

TEVA gives back Custirsen to OXGI:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oncogenex-regain-rights-custirsen-teva-120000711.html

OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. today announced that it has executed an initial agreement with Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. to regain rights to custirsen, an investigational compound currently being evaluated in Phase 3 clinical development as a treatment for prostate and lung cancers.

The initial agreement reached by OncoGenex and Teva provides that, following execution of the final agreement to terminate the collaboration between the parties, OncoGenex will receive a $27 million payment from Teva, subject to certain adjustments. In addition, OncoGenex will take over responsibility for all custirsen related expenses, including those related to the ENSPIRIT trial, as well as manufacturing and regulatory activities for custirsen programs, which are currently being managed by Teva. OncoGenex expects that the $27 million payment from Teva will allow for the completion and final results from the AFFINITY trial, as well as continuation of the ENSPIRIT trial through the second interim futility analysis expected in the first half of 2015.

Custirsen failed a phase-3 trial in CRPC in Apr 2014 (#msg-101237048). The original agreement between TEVA and OXGI was inked in 2009 (#msg-44717420).