Biotech Values

[Summer2762]

The problem with probabilities assigned to a single incident is that someone can never know whether he/she was right based on the outcome of that incident alone.

I was not surprised to see SYNERGY fail but I was really surprised to see OGXI down this much. If everybody expected the trial to fail, why did it drop this much?

After the detailed analysis, I now expect TEVA drop OGX-011 after a compensation agreement with OGXI ($20-30M). At this valuation, I don't know if that it a good thing or bad thing.

I also expect OGXI partner OGX-427 asap. Something similar to what THLD did.

The co raising money at $60M market cap would be suicide.