These LG theories are fine, but it just seems to appear that for years the dates keep getting punted when the theory fails the test of time and then the theory modified by the date failure to enhance the newly dated theory. It is fine, everyone has their own opinion.
You nailed the marker though this time.
AZ, a reasonable poster and respected reader of documents, as has been noted, and LG, appear to believe the PIERS included in the current tranche will be closed by the May 1st distribution of the RONs.
If this distribution takes place as announced, it will be a detailed disclosure; there is so much to explain who will hold the RONS for the PIERS holders, etc. It would make sense to have this distribution separate from any other just for this reason.
In addition to your correct and continued statement that that tranche cannot be closed until the claims are paid, or the LT assets are gone, the May 1st payment might not even include the following if such are "not completed" and "not determined to needed for claims":
1. The recent commutation with United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company and the $65 million that is flow to WMMRC. This was only proposed 4/3/2014 and, as per the SEC filing, it requires the approval of regulators, then senior and subordinated agreement holders of WMIH. If the $65 million isn't "cleared" in time to calculate and process the distributions for May 1st, to state that the mere distributions of the RONS to the PIERS closes out the tranche is, well, ridiculous.
2. The recent CA tax settlement proposed 3/14/2014, with $45 million to the LT, may also not be distributed May 1st. Same as with (1), the PIERS tranche will not be closed out and deprived of these funds as well. Also, this $45 million is half of the estimated allocation of the tax refunds valued per VRC (Valuation Research Corporation) with the retention of state tax expert consultants from Sideman & Bancroft, to state that the remaining state tax refunds valued at almost $50 million will not be paid or payable to the PIERS tranche after the distributions of the RONS to the PIERS is also ridiculous.
3. The $18 million reserve for the D&O, if the Delaware Supreme Court ends (or does not end) that LT case against the insurer's, is the least amount that will be freed up to pay claims; again, the PIERS tranche, which it will get, even if the RONS are distributed to the PIERS on May 1st.