hi duke,
i think you get the point!
tkc and dig probably have the best track record out there of being in tune with reality.
the funny thing is that dig and tkc also win on prescience, if prescience is meaningful. their thinking has matched reality along investment-sensitive timelines. think doughnut hole etc.
they make no claims on the future which they cannot afford.
on the other hand, the telescopists want to be thought of as visionaries; whereas in fact their optimism is dilutional. sorry, dilutive.
there's nothing visionary in being wrong for a decade. proclaiming adoption just around the corner over and over is a record of failure. if the fruit of your vision is dilution and you don't spot the connection, and don't amend your forecasting to account for its costs, then you are simply an optimist. optimism isn't a valuable yardstick.
and if eventually tc takes, then you don't get to claim you are a forecasting genius. you get to claim you are a clock. right, because the world turns and every now and again the hands are in the right place.
validation ain't there for the taking.
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