Replies to post #176703 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: GILD vs ABBV/ENTA for cirrhotic patients

Generally speaking, [TURQUOISE-2 is] similar to ION-1, 2 for cirrhotic patients, taking into consideration that ION-2 included some Incivek/Victrelis treated.

Agreed that the two regimens have roughly equivalent efficacy in cirrhotic patients; however, that’s not the full story insofar as GILD is asking the FDA and EMA to approve a 12w regimen without ribavirin, which would seem to be suboptimal, especially for treatment-experienced cirrhotics.

Thus, I see a potential opening for ABBV/ENTA to exploit in treatment-experienced and/or GT1a cirrhotics by including ribavirin and treating for 24 weeks to maximize the cure rate. A strong case can be made that treatment of cirrhotic patients should be as aggressive as possible since the downside of treatment failure is more serious than for other patient groups.