Replies to post #264 on Nuo Therapeutics Inc. (fka NUOTQ)

[errett]

old red-----Nice post: I'll have to review your points one at a time.

Your first point concerning the size of the trial is correct. Most scientists want a trial that is powered at 80%----meaning there is an 80% chance that the trial, as designed, will distinguish an effect of a specific size from pure luck----usually they are looking for a "p" value .05 or less in order to claim statistical significance-----the "p" value is a product of the size of the effect of the drug, and the number of patients in the trial------so if we lower the number of patients we will need a larger effect to reach our p-value-------which is what you correctly pointed out------the CEO stated that the trial is still adequately powered----so if we reach that p value of .05 or less with fewer patients then we have a much larger effect.

There might well be an internal debate going on in the company concerning the appropriate allocation of resources i.e., focus 100% on AUTOLOGEL, or attempt to develop both the ALD family and AUTOLOGEL. In a way this ALD-401 trial will settle the issue. By using a smaller population of patients that is still powered correctly they will need a much bigger treatment effect to reach their goal---and if successful that will likely entice a partnership.

The news items concerning the patients response to treatment are reassuring but of little value in making a judgment concerning holding a position through the results. The other factor is that there are always other issues that, few are aware of, that seem to surface----and they are usually negative. Probably the smart play here is to play the run up to the event---take profits.

jmo

[errett]

What risk does a stockholder of CMXI have going into the trial results in May? Assuming they are already in the stock, and they are long, then I tend to agree with Jason N----most momentum players will get out before results and there will be a pullback from that elevated price----and if the results are negative then the price may temporarily dip from there----but I don't think the price will go much below .50 and will probably recover quickly given that the failed trial will most likely mark the end of this approach. Guaranteeing a complete focus on Autologel.

I agree with you that there will be some fluctuation in price with negative results-----I'm not sure how much speculation/shorting will take place---there just isn't a lot of buzz about this drug/company to speak of ----

Something keeps me interested though----maybe it is the complete silence from the company---not releasing PR after PR saying very little-----I was in Celsion, and everyone was talking about how their delivery method would be a game changer for cancer treatment etc. the results were a complete failure----here, there is no talk and little expectation---so I think this is a binary event---either a whimper or a major BANG!

[errett]

old red---I think your last point is fundamental----this company is at the point of booking profits and expanding its market share--in 2014. It no longer is a micro-cap pure spec. play with a long-shot molecule that will someday be shot down by the FDA. It will reverse split---change markets---improve its balance sheet---and will in all likelihood be an excellent company to hold in your portfolio from here---or just book 20-70% and get out and move on.

Market manipulation is something that will always be in the game--most likely------Michael Lewis's new book "Flash Boys" explains how the entire market has been corrupted by front-running in essence using high speed fiber-optics/computers and kicking back profits to the various exchanges around the country--13 or so I believe---about 1/2 the daily volume is from these people buying what you want to buy a micro-second or two before your order gets to the exchange your broker uses and then selling it to you for a slightly higher price---booking tens of billions of dollars a year-----if we stay focused on the fact that this is a zero-sum game and that what we are really doing is competing against each other---against human nature---the herd---we will do OK.

[rocketeer357]

I don't agree Jason Napodono. Negative ALD-401 results will wither the stock price IMO, regardless of where the PPS is when the results are announced. I'm looking at plenty of compannies right now that are trading well below the PPS at which they sold shares. Especially now, with the bio sector reeling, any bad news is going to impact heavily to the downside.

I agree with you- trial results are going to have to be quite strong to show serious efficacy. If they hit, it'll definitely hike the stock price over a buck. Maybe it's enouraging that CMXI negotiated their recent financing to give them an opportunity to seek better terms if ALD hits, but it's all conjecture at this point.

That said, IMO, it's a big risk to hold CMXI through the results PR. And that said, I'm still not sure what I'll do with my shares, lol

[Bornagain777]

You mention that "news outlets picked up on a couple of trial participants and that it was promising". Was there any follow-up on this speculation or rumors from other news outlet that you know of thank you.