Some thoughts on ALD-401.
The protocol was brutal and badly written, so we have 48 trial participants rather than 100. With a 60/40 split trail/placebo we may have 29 treated and 19 sham. This has become a very small trial and the difference between trial and sham results will have to be strong in order to be statistically significant.
Jason N has said that a failed trial will not hurt the stock price, as he assigns 0 value to Aldagen to start. At a fundamental level this may be true. However, any price run-up that is attributed to speculators getting in ahead of the trial results will be quickly unwound if the trial fails. Shorts will have positions going into the trial as well.
Is trial outcome a binary event? The trial can fail, or succeed, but how much room is there in-between for results that are promising, yet not a full success. Any indication that Cyto would have to spend more money on additional trials is a complete no go. ALD-401 could die on the vine if a partner did not take up any further trial costs. What possible deals could Cyto make? Will a value greater than 0 for ALD be good for the stock?
News outlets picked up on a couple of trial participants early on, and their outcomes looked promising. Additional info was quickly squashed.
Very little has been mentioned anywhere regarding the ALD-310 trial that is also in phase II (Patients With Intermittent Claudication Injected With ALDH Bright Cells (PACE). This trial is to recruit 80 patients. The inclusion criteria is much better than that for AL
d-401. How many have been recruited. Will Marty, who has said he will be more forthcoming, tell us anything?
What do you all make of the volume Friday. With all the millions of shares running around due to all the layers company financing, the manipulation potential here is endless.
Imagine if this company every gets to a point where it has a clean balance sheet, and makes money by selling products, not shares.
Thoughts?
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