Dave, the logic in your post seems very reasonable to me. I just don't see the "solid" reaction you describe - unless there is VOLUME. If the result in option 3 occurs, given the limited revenue in Q4 2012, I agree we fall back.
As for guidance, I suspect it will be very similar to the Roth presentation. Inital Cabana Coconut drink sold out and very popular at the show in early March. Going to be a big seller. Projection 500,000 cases by year end. At least 500,000 cases Cabana lemonade sold this year hit 500,000 case. Will hit combined Cabana threshold (lemonade and coconut water) of 250,000 cases per quarter (1 million annualized) at some point this year. Pulse drink reformulated and being reintroduced in Q2. Revenues will ramp up steadily from this drink as the year progresses. I doubt they give any guidance numbers on this.
My guess there will be pluses and minuses that will roughly cancel each other out and we trade sideways. Fortunately, it will only be a quick 6-8 weeks to May and the Q1 report. then we get the impact of the 14,000 cases of coconut water selling out.
