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Friday, March 14, 2014 4:31:51 PM
As reminder, conjecture is merely an educated guess based upon known facts or history. The more facts one has it stands to reason the more accurate the guess, right?
If I had all the facts LM management has at their disposal I'd be I'd be more willing to guess exactly when there could be a LM contract. Id be more accepting of responsibility if I am proven wrong....or if I'm proven correct in time.
The "Facts" that lead me to guess that a sale or two is coming in the next Q or two (3-6 mos.) don't all come from LQ CC's or PR's.
The recent conjecture is...the LQMT team..MIGHT help deliver a better future for LQMT and shareholders will achieve at minimum a modest ROI.
When?
That question calls for wild conjecture, but I'll keep my fingers crossed a couple sales close between this Q and next and positive sales licensing revenues come in late 2014.
In fact, the main reason I project a 3-6 month contract closure time frame is the assertions by Mr. Hipple, CEO of MATERION, a BILLION dollar annual sales corporation with 155 investment fund shareholders holding 91% of MTRN stock. He made three statements of interest to me in his 2013 FY end Conference Call to shareholders and investment firms last month:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2055123-materions-ceo-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=6
1. Cost cutting at MTRN continues. Deleting product lines and several facilities are to be mothballed or combined in order to return .45 per share value to their shareholders.
**Yet, while cost-cutting, MTRN has simultaneously spent arguably millions in developing, testing and producing in commercial qtys. alloy versions of Liquidmetal.
2. "It (LM sales) has to evolve thru normal cycles of qualifications, people [indiscernible], always takes a little bit longer upfront, and then you can start to play mental games with yourself, that it's going to be much larger; because depending on where the product ultimately goes, it can go in some very high volume size applications and the metal is very attractive, it has forming characteristics that require minimizing or eliminating machining, and has strength and stiffness ratios that are out of this world.
We have developed the (Liquidmetal) alloys to support this die casting technology (thru ENGEL)...alloy development is very critical to help the reliability and the production of high volumes. So what's happening is, I think with our technology advancements, in combination with technology advancement in die casting, we are now set up in a total supply chain, that we can actually develop these markets more robustly."
Per Mr. Steipp, LM CEO, LQMT has (28) products / molds under customer review dating back two years for some. Is that a normal "cycle of qualification" ? If one reason those companies has not "pulled the trigger" was the uncertainty of the LM alloy availability and delivery supply chain, then has MTRN satisfied that valid concern? Logically, yes.
3."...we could develop the market in the $5 million to $10 million range, and then beyond that, it could be much more exciting than that. That's practicality."
Mr. Hipple has conservative goals of $5 - $10M per year of Liquidmetal alloys sales. In order to achieve them his team or LM's team MUST sell a licensed LM product, or he fails. I do not think Mr. Hipple is ready to admit failure since he only just launched their alloy supply in commercial quantity last month.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/materion-corporation-unit-introduces-new-line-of-bulk-metallic-glass-alloys-2014-02-17
The last point is more supposition as opposed to conjecture.
sup·po·si·tion noun \?s?-p?-'zi-sh?n\
: an idea or theory that you believe is truetrue even though you do not have proof.
Why would Mr. Hipple develop, test, mfg. and store a large stock of LM alloy rods and ingots in a warehouse gathering dust on the shelves? His statements appear to be optimistic for future large growth opportunities for LM.
That material represents revenue he needs to realize for the shareholders, not a tax write-off. Does that portend a 100% chance there is already a contract in the pipeline? NO. Not 100%
Lastly, Mr. Hipple's professional reputation is on the line and he doesn't seem like the kind of man to gamble with that or the projected value of Liquidmetal to his company.
Recent LQMT News
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/20/2024 08:11:00 PM
- Form NT 10-Q - Notification of inability to timely file Form 10-Q or 10-QSB • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/15/2024 08:49:57 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/09/2024 09:05:11 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/21/2023 10:15:45 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/21/2023 10:26:27 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/10/2023 08:37:18 PM
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