*SCALPSWINGSTRADDLE*

[Zephyr]

Durable Goods Orders
Released On 2/27/2014 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Orders - M/M change -4.3 % -5.3 % -1.6 % -4.8 % to 2.0 % -1.0 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change -0.8 % 4.6 %
Ex-transportation - M/M -1.6 % -1.9 % -0.4 % -1.5 % to 0.5 % 1.1 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr 2.7 % 1.2 %
Highlights
Despite bad weather, there are signs of improvement in manufacturing-after looking beyond a negative headline number. New factory orders for durables in January decreased 1.0, following a drop of 5.3 percent in December. Expectations were for a 1.6 percent decline.

The transportation component fell a monthly 5.6 percent after plunging 12.0 percent in December. However, other components were more positive. Excluding transportation, durables orders rebounded 1.1 percent in January after falling 1.9 percent the month before.

Within transportation, nondefense aircraft decreased 20.2 percent, following a drop of 22.3 percent in December. Defense aircraft rebounded a monthly 19.4 percent after falling 21.8 percent in December. Motor vehicles slipped 2.2 percent in January, following a decrease of 6.6 percent the prior month.

Outside of transportation, orders were up notably for fabricated metals and computer products. These were partially offset by smaller declines for primary metals, machinery, electrical equipment, and other durable goods.

There was improvement in investment plans. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rebounded 1.7 percent, following 1.8 percent decline in December. Shipments for this series slipped 0.8 percent in January, following a 0.3 percent increase in December.

The latest durables report points to improved manufacturing activity at the core in coming months. However, shipments are suggesting a soft first quarter so far.