Short Term Trading Member Forum

[airedale88]

tech, i'd have to debate the "large top being formed" with the majority of indexes except for NASD/SP500 all having made new 4.5 yr or all time highs. i've never seen the mutual fund cash be a precise timing indicator. anyway, thought i'd post a chart containing the last 5 nominal 18 month/78-80 wk cycles. these include those during the bubble. i've drawn little marks on the bottom of the chart to indicate those cycle lows.



the 1st 80 wk cycle on the chart was the last leading into a 4.5 yr low. it topped out in the 15th month.
the 2nd cycle on the chart, the 1st of the new 4.5 yr cycle, topped in 9 months. the next, 7 months,and the final cycle of that 4.5 yr series 6 months. notice that during the so called bubble crash which also included a terrible terrorist act on our own soil, rallies off the 80 wk cycle low lasted 6.5 months. the 1st 80 wk cycle rally off the march 03 4.5 yr low topped in 12 months, the 2nd, well, it went sideways into it's low but individual stocks do show a decline so depending on the stock i'd say the cycle topped from from 12 to 16 months,, and here we are at the beginning of the 3 rd 80 wk cycle. i'd surmise we have at least possibly 6.5 months before a top on a worst case basis.