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Thursday, 05/01/2003 9:48:40 PM

Thursday, May 01, 2003 9:48:40 PM

Post# of 432867
All this talk about who is gonna get how much of the gold InterDigital is going to deliver soon got me to thinking one more time about what really could go wrong. Broke pattern and tried thinking "outside the box" for a change. Let's assume that everything we expect to happen with InterDigital's future revenues really is going to happen in the years ahead(IMO most of it is). OK, so what else could go wrong? Get past the "dilution" and who "deserves" how much stuff for a moment, and let's look for any really serious roadblocks to our expected investment returns on this one.

As wireless waz says, "HMMMmmmmm.....???" A buyout before the market fully values IDCC's future revenue streams and the earnings growth they will drive is always a worry, and we have already discussed that concern. Utt Oh!.... How many shares would the IDCC management need to take the company private? If there are let's say 54 million shares issued, and if they only need 50% plus one share(I don't know?) to vote "yes" on going private, that would be 27 million and one shares. Let's say they already control 7 million. How much cash would they need to acquire the other 20 million needed? If they had to go as high as double the current market valuation they would need access to about one billion dollars(i.e., 2x$25 is $50, and 20 million shares tendered at that price would cost one billion$).

How much cash did we figure IDCC will have in the coming months? Seems like it was looking to be close to 1/2 $billion when all the bets are called and the pot gets right. Bet the investment bankers would be falling all over each other to loan the other 1/2 $billion. When Howard said they had "an outstanding acquistion opportunity in mind" during that March 17 conf call, I wonder if he was talking about InterDigital Communications Corp? If he was, and they do, then I'm gonna think awhile about not tendering my IDCC shares. Seems logical that holding a partnership interest in a private InterDigital would yield some really lucrative dividend payouts, and it would also take us out of the Wall Street "goat rodeo" market mania stuff. How's that for a new wrinkle?


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