The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

Abbey Joseph Cohen recommends HFC based on continued wide Brent-WTI spread (from Barron’s Roundtable):

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903704404579334780442204564.html

My energy-sector pick is HollyFrontier [HFC], an oil refiner. Holly is a U.S. company that benefits from its geography. It has 100% of its refining capacity in the middle of the U.S., and has substantial exposure to light crude. Our energy team expects there will be good spreads around the world that will benefit U.S. producers. The spread between Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude is going to be lumpy, depending on the refinery, supply, and distribution infrastructure, but we expect it will average about $10 a barrel in the next few years. This means refiners can buy lower-priced crude, but sell gasoline at higher prices.

Holly, like many energy-industry stocks, underperformed the S&P 500 last year. Based on our 2014 earnings estimate, it has a P/E of 9.3. It yields 6.4%.

Goldman analysts think the company could earn $5.35 a share this year. (Wall Street's consensus estimate is $4.40.) …Our analysts forecast $90 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate at year end, and $100 for Brent.