Yeah,
--
I think on many boards, one expects to be insulted or slimed…and some of us (like me) can get defensive before stopping to think the statement might instead be a turn of phrase meant to ingratiate or laugh with (not at) someone.
Price runs:
I think price escalation, assuming the trial halts, is dependent on the PFS, OS, ORR and extrapolations drawn therefrom. If the PFS is 24 months or more, OS is 3 years or more and the response rate is 80% or more, the price could (immediately) well run much higher than 100 if a halt of the phase 3 trial for success was announced before Direct results. It will take some time (days to weeks), after potentially great results for GBM patients, for the entire world to realize (internalize) DCVAX applies to all solid tumor cancers. So look for a longer price-run-time before any slowing or pullback.
On any pullback: (I'll timely use ICPT for comparison).
*ICPT had a 'relatively small' but significant pullback based upon cholesterol concerns in a fatty liver treatment. DCVAX is not likely to have a pullback of that significance, because Cancer is extremely fatal, and while DCVAX really has no side effects, any DCVAX minor side-effects (beyond the chemo/radiation/surgery side effects) will be of almost no concern at all.
*ICPT may use their drug for other things like alcohol related cirrhosis -- if its efficacy continues to be proven there as well. DCVAX on the other hand is already being used on multiple cancers in compassionate use programs internationally. Therefore, before any pullback, super strong DCVAX-L results will likely have far more than a 2 day -- AKA: ICPT -- gigantic run-up.
* There are always things detractors will come up with to knock a company down a few notches -- like NWBO -- if NWBO comes back with spectacular results; but, waiting in the wings is DCVAX Direct, and if that starts to demonstrate tumor eradication on multiple cancers with strong indications of immunity, and that information is revealed to the public on the heels of the DCVAX-L results, then it will be very very difficult for detractors or anyone else to stop the price escalation. When it dawns on people that direct could be used on operable tumors as well…the run keeps going…finally, if it is intimated that DCVAX-Direct may potentially work on non-solid tumors as well (when administration is modified), than you get the highest price of all.
* If Powers splits the shares early and significantly, she could actually keep the stock affordable enough that even old shorts will buy it, and thus, the run keeps going. In conclusion, Price to earnings is not always an accurate way to evaluate a stock -- when the entire world takes interest….I'll just leave it at that.
