One thing I like to look at straight off is how fast they are burning through cash. Convertibles and warrants and last price offering for a fundamental support/resistance level. Near term/long term catalysts. A major pet peeve with me is who the company is doing financing with as well. To me? Anything through the Caymans is a red flag. Some of the hedgers, like sabbey, are just users and abusers (this is just my own opinion). Once the selling starts, you want to be covered, or short yourself lol. ATHX and RNN just had a nice chunk bought by sabby, so watch them as an example of what i'm talking about. Both have their news and a bit of action going, for the moment. I'm not saying don't ride the momentum, i'm just saying do it with caution.
CPRX
Catalyst expects that BioMarin will present the full data set from this study at a major medical meeting at some time in the future and will submit the data for publication thereafter.
Would they wait as long as ASCO the end of May for this? I would think not.
BioMarin was just downgraded. Not good timing imo pending publication for results. Which really plays into the manipulation of analysts. One battles against another and we see it all the time!
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN) has finally begun to control its spiraling costs. The J.P. Morgan analysts feel that while BioMarin has an attractive pipeline, concern about management's ability to control costs and allow the company to become sustainably profitable. Over the past decade, BioMarin has become one of the top orphan drug companies, and it looks poised to stay there. The company is expected to post around $545 million in revenue this year and possibly around $700 million next year, following the approval of Vimizim, an enzyme replacement therapy for Morquio syndrome. The J.P. Morgan price target is $83, and the consensus target is $82. BioMarin closed Tuesday at $68.54.
So, CPRX tied together with BioMarin to me looks pretty good. Technically I would have wanted to be in under the $ who wouldn't right?
Well, I talk enough bs. Some of the warrants are exercisable right here @ 2.08. I like the idea of getting in under where I know the insiders are. Hard to have patience sometimes though and for some reason I still have a hard time keeping cash on hand.
Okay, so if you haven't already quit reading I like the 1.50 support to 2.40 resistance window. That's pretty wide really. But zoom in from there if you will. There are some of the indicators showing some weakness that if they continue could break near term support, but for the moment I would watch. Easy for me to say since I'm not in. My own risk tolerance would have s/l set @ 1.90. We know how fast things can happen in the bio world and my lack of DD into what CPRX is doing is my loss. But, as a swing trader I would be interested to see if $2 holds and can get a push going. If the RSI breaks the 50 line then imo divergence will let this go lower. But at the same time, watch who's soaking up the weakness. If the science works, then the sneaky MM's will want to fake out retail.
Okay, so what are your thoughts? Or anyone else that would like to get in on this discussion.
Do your research! Play the TA. All posts are my opinion.
