Etienne and Ou,
While our 3 predictions are very far apart, I believe they are all reasonable alternatives. Ou's conservative prognostication is the soundest based upon historical norms for biotech trial progress. Even if he proves prescient once again, I believe patients, caregivers and the world have reason to hope this time. With every breakthrough in cancer, it seems the past is also strewn with disappointments that make the most optimistic among us turn dubious.
Futurist Ray Kurzweil's observations regarding how the human psyche relates to technological advancement expectations is worth considering. In the short run (1-5 years), people expect matters like cancer treatment, robotics, computer development and the like to achieve much more than typically occurs. However, in the long run (ten years or more into the future), technology tends to advance in unexpected ways that go well beyond what we considered possible in one generation.
DCVAX-L and DCVAX-Direct provide a decent point and case. From 2003 until 2013, DCVAX-L was turning out data points that pointed towards a sea-change in medical care. It seemed slow and laborious to the point that human cognition started discounting the beautiful dream it once elicited. Moreover, for most of that decade, DCVAX-Direct disappeared entirely from mankind's expectations. However, by 2014/2015, there is a real chance we will see an effective broad-spectrum cancer vaccine based upon DCVAX technology!
