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Saturday, December 28, 2013 1:43:14 PM
I finally looked up PIK notes
WOW
Those are notes (money that flows to WMIH) that WMIH pays back with NON cash value (future preferreds or common dilution)
This is great and NOW the numbers make sense
Yes as the article points out there is dilution
But the value of the NOLS discounted for "transactions" (profit to others is my sense) and then again for time (NPV) is indeed over 1B
While I am not sure of the total value and remaining value for current equity used in the article --- the simple view is now for the first time we can think that indeed WMIH has cash - and has a partner and has 1B in cash from the NOLs .... use 200 million as number of shares (overage over 1B I give to dilution) and that is 5 bucks a share to my simpler mind
Now - does anyone think there are some NOLS to yet be found or created from other types of losses ?
We now know the formula - as expected
NOL x .30 for cash value of tax savings over time
So 6B is 1.8B
Then that is discounted for time to say 1-1.2Billion (I think it will be fast and closer to 1.2B then the articles 1B)
So if they find another 2B in NOL that is say 350 million or over 1.5 dollars a share not counting any leverage etc from potential earnings value
all my dumb ask math on this crazy speculation
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