NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[ou71764]

Flipper, thank you for that insight on the trial design. Sure enough, it's under the phase III criteria: "Patients must not have progressive disease at completion of radiation therapy."

This could also mean that the placebo group will do better than expected. But if DCVax-L even comes close to its phase I results, much less better based on the inclusion criteria, then it's a home run.

No one knows what the trial results will be. An investment decision is based on the perceived risk/reward. The prevailing wisdom is that the vaccine doesn't work and the stock price is going collapse even more.

So if the trial succeeds, the payoff will be much greater than it would be if there a balance between the believers and non-believers. It doesn't make NWBO a sure thing, but it's a great contrarian speculation.

And there is substantial, albeit not definitive, evidence that it works. If I didn't already own the stock and didn't want to do much DD, I'd still buy a few shares just based on the investor skepticism and the early results.