WSJ
BEIJING—China's economy will post growth of 7.6% for all of 2013, a top planning official said, indicating that the world's second-largest economy will exceed Beijing's 7.5% target but that it also lost momentum in the final months of the year.
High-density housing under construction in China, where the government is trying to cool property prices. European Pressphoto Agency
The full-year estimate was revealed by Xu Shaoshi, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, in a report to senior members of the country's top legislative body on Wednesday, according to official media. That compares with a 7.7% growth rate for 2012.
"We cannot deny a downward pressure on economic growth," Mr. Xu told lawmakers, according to the official Xinhua news agency. He cited uncertainties in the global economic recovery and lackluster international demand, Xinhua said.
Some economists said the figure suggested a slowdown near the end of the year following a third-quarter uptick. "If full-year growth is at 7.6%, it means that the economy was slightly worse than market expectations in the fourth quarter," said Nomura economist Wendy Chen.
"We maintain our forecast that the economy peaked in the third quarter, and the moderating trend will extend into the first half of 2014," she said.
China's economy posted year-over-year growth of 7.8% in the third quarter after expanding at 7.7% in the first quarter and 7.5% in the second quarter amid a still sluggish global economy. A "mini-stimulus" of government investment in rail and subway construction coupled with tax and other business incentives helped boost growth in the July-September period.
Senior officials last month concluded a key economic strategy session where they discussed balancing the need to maintain growth while pushing ahead with longer-term goals like dealing with overcapacity and pollution—policies that could slow the economy's momentum even further. No economic target has been announced for 2014, but many economists predict that Beijing will likely set a similar 7.5% goal for the year.
This level of growth indicates Chinese economic growth is "still in an acceptable range," said HSBC economist Ma Xiaoping, referring to the 2013 estimate. "But we need to pay attention to several risk areas such as liquidity conditions in the banking system and a possible slowdown in property investment, especially investments in third- and fourth-tier cities," she said. Third- and fourth-tier cities are still-developing cities compared with the richest cities like Beijing and Shanghai.
Interbank rates—or the rates banks charge when they lend to each other—spiked last week amid a shortage of funds, partly due to year-end factors but also revealing strains in the banking system. A similar cash crunch emerged in June, and both times the central bank stepped in to add liquidity to the market.
Economists suggest that the nation's central bank will likely loosen monetary policy by the second quarter if growth continues to slow next year.
The government has also been trying to cool rising property prices, but it is treading softly as the property market is a major pillar of the economy.
—Yajun Zhang contributed to this article.
Write to William Kazer at william.kazer@wsj.com
