DEALING WITH THE ARMY
In the first round Robinson secured 21 percent of the vote, while Rajaonarimampianina won 16 percent, both far short of the 50 percent plus needed for outright victory.
“Unless Robinson makes a deal with the army to guarantee that their concerns are addressed, I do not see massive support from the army for him,” said Lydie Boka, manager of consultancy Strategico. “There is no way it can and will remain neutral.”
The economy of the world's fourth largest island, which boasts unique flora and fauna as well as rich mineral deposits, had grown strongly at around 7 percent a year before the coup.
Multinationals had then scrambled to develop or explore nickel, titanium, cobalt, iron, coal and uranium deposits, as well to hunt for hydrocarbons - the island's maritime boundaries border Mozambique where plentiful gas has been found.
Interest slowed sharply after 2009. Issuing new mining licences stopped. Now, low metals prices mean Madagascar will have to work harder to draw investors even if order returns.
“The free, transparent and credible election of a government in Madagascar, and the resumption of international aid following the recognition of that elected government, would be positive for investment in the country,” mining investor Sherritt International said in a statement to Reuters.
The Toronto-listed firm owns 40 percent of the $5.3 billion Ambatovy nickel mine, which started production last year.
The other major mining operator is London-listed Rio Tinto, holding 80 percent of a mine producing ilmenite, an ingredient used in paints, paper and plastics.
Other mining investors have scaled back plans or left.
“I hope this election puts an end to several years of crisis,” said Jeannette Ravonisoa, a 40-year-old vegetable seller. “We suffer too much from the current situation.”
