Wook,
My "guesstimate" would be closer to 150 sites. (600/ 150 = 4 patients average per site. Could fill up faster than you think.)
PS I was in attendance at the Piper Jaffray conference where the phase III was briefly discussed so I feel modestly informed on this issue.
IMO would be wise to disregard most of what was written about that conference by negative posters who don't have the faintest idea of what they are talking about. Ditto on negative posters re enrollment. Look for a "hockey stick" enrollment and "fast start" aimed at getting to interim looks faster. Interim looks are event driven by number. Not necessary to have full enrollment to get to interim looks.
It is clear as crystal that the value of the IP is increasing at a more rapid pace and an ever broadening outlook. PPHM as a research organization is doing well. Forget all the bashing and watch the "feet" moving toward this small unknown company inclusive of top Bus. Develop personnel and four KOL types on the S.A.B..
It is also clear PPHM still not doing well as a stock. In my opinion both areas should come together in a positive direction.
Directional change in PPHM as a "stock" might be aided by the following IMO:
Increase at Avid is good for cash flow and lessens ATM need. Lytle still lowballing IMO Avid projections at 18-22mm for fy. IMO could be more like 22-30mm for fy.
Lytle again mentions debt as a less dilutive option. There is no reason PPHM should not be able to put in place an interim loan vs a stronger and growing Avid free cash flow. IMO Avid easily sustains 30-40mm in long term, clean debt that in no way encumbers IP.
Expanding KOL publication re MOA should expand partnering ops. Worsley is a licensing and partnering expert with a proven track record on Mabs. Naturally, some interim deals, other than sale of entire company, would be positive for stock IMO.
Regards,
RRdog
