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Re: greedy__malone post# 249654

Friday, 11/15/2013 12:49:50 PM

Friday, November 15, 2013 12:49:50 PM

Post# of 312030
Let's assume the mythical world exists where only highly profitable alternative energy machines get bought even though virtually not a single one since the beginning of man is net profitable compared to just using conventional fuel. But, let's assume for argument sake that is correct and in America the entire ethanol industry, windmills, solar industry, nuclear industry, and every other waste-to-energy machine that is bought is actually quite profitable and the Energy Information Agency who gives exact details on this is absolutely wrong.

Let's just run with that. Still, why would we use the profit numbers per gallon in Q3 knowing that...

(1) It included inventory that cost much more than the current costs of inventory.
(2) The costs per gallon have come down significantly compared to the quarter just prior.
(3) JBII's overheard is not the same as the overhead of a processor buyer. For example, if Crayola were to buy a processor, would they need to add an entire accounting department, a new chief of technology, a new CFO, and all of the other staff JBII has along with 10K and 10Q audit fees, a whole new property and headquarters, etc. etc.? Of course not.
(4) Future fuel prices are unknown.

A buyer would have significantly less feedstock costs than JBII had in Q3, and a buyer wouldn't have JBII's overheard. It would not cost Crayola, for example, $5.2 million in overheard to have a processor on site comingled with its current operations.

Raw

Research & analysis on some of my favorite stocks is located on the sticky note on the SwingTrade board.

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