Thursday, October 31, 2013 9:14:04 AM
Jobless Claims
Released On 10/31/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk10/26, 2013
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 350 K 350 K 335 K 328 K to 345 K 340 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 348.25 K 348.25 K 356.25 K
New Claims - Change -12 K -12 K -10 K
Highlights
The clarity of jobless claims is improving but comparisons are difficult to make. Initial claims in the October 26 week came in at 340,000, which is 10,000 below the prior week but more than 30,000 above the month-ago trend. Counting problems in California, tied to a computer changeover, are no longer inflating the numbers, nor are government contractors who were filing claims during the government shutdown in the first half of the month. Inflated by these factors, the 4-week average has risen sharply for 4 straight weeks, to 356,250 in the latest week which is the highest reading since April.
Continuing claims continue to be less volatile than initial claims, up 31,000 to 2.881 million in the latest data which are for the October 19 week. The 4-week average has been steady, down 10,000 in the latest week to 2.879 million which, however, is a bit above the month-ago trend. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 2.2 percent which is just up from the recovery low.
Special factors aside, claims data look a little on the high side but the view is still heavily distorted.
Released On 10/31/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk10/26, 2013
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 350 K 350 K 335 K 328 K to 345 K 340 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 348.25 K 348.25 K 356.25 K
New Claims - Change -12 K -12 K -10 K
Highlights
The clarity of jobless claims is improving but comparisons are difficult to make. Initial claims in the October 26 week came in at 340,000, which is 10,000 below the prior week but more than 30,000 above the month-ago trend. Counting problems in California, tied to a computer changeover, are no longer inflating the numbers, nor are government contractors who were filing claims during the government shutdown in the first half of the month. Inflated by these factors, the 4-week average has risen sharply for 4 straight weeks, to 356,250 in the latest week which is the highest reading since April.
Continuing claims continue to be less volatile than initial claims, up 31,000 to 2.881 million in the latest data which are for the October 19 week. The 4-week average has been steady, down 10,000 in the latest week to 2.879 million which, however, is a bit above the month-ago trend. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 2.2 percent which is just up from the recovery low.
Special factors aside, claims data look a little on the high side but the view is still heavily distorted.
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