*SCALPSWINGSTRADDLE*

[Zephyr]

Durable Goods Orders
Released On 10/25/2013 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2013
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Orders - M/M change 0.1 % 0.2 % 2.5 % 0.4 % to 7.0 % 3.7 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change 13.7 % 13.8 % 7.4 %
Ex-transportation - M/M -0.1 % -0.4 % 0.5 % -0.2 % to 1.1 % -0.1 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr 7.6 % 7.3 % 5.6 %
Highlights
New factory orders for durables jumped in September-largely on aircraft orders. But outside of transportation, durables orders were marginally negative, indicating that manufacturing is still sluggish. New factory orders for durables in September surged 3.7 percent after edging up 0.2 percent in August (originally up 0.1 percent). The median forecast for September was for a 2.5 percent gain. The transportation component spiked 12.3 percent after an increase of 1.7 percent in August. The transportation surge came from nondefense aircraft with defense aircraft also being strong. Excluding transportation, durables orders slipped 0.1 percent, following a decline of 0.4 percent in August. Analysts forecast a 0.5 percent advance for September.

Within transportation, motor vehicles slipped 0.3 percent, nondefense aircraft spiked a monthly 57.5 percent, and defense aircraft rebounded 15.2 percent. Outside of transportation, gains were seen in primary metals and computers & electronics. Contraction was seen in fabricated metals, machinery, electrical equipment, and "other."

Nondefense capital goods orders edged up 0.1 percent in September, matching the rise the month before. Shipments for this series declined 0.2 percent, following a rebound of 1.1 percent the month before. Overall, business investment in equipment outside of aircraft is sluggish, possibly due to slow economic growth and uncertainty over the government sector.

Going into the government shutdown, the manufacturing sector (outside of Boeing) was essentially flat. Soft employment numbers for manufacturing for September add to this view.