The stock market is hardly rational all the time. Sometimes I have to wonder if it is ever so! And that brings me to the conclusion that it is I who is irrational, daring to expect outcomes based on logic. Over the longer haul, we've come to expect proofs of various sorts. Yet how can we explain yesterday's massive devaluing of another refiner---CVRR (CVR Resources)? Often I watch NTI's gyrations and wonder what forces can so effectively move the unit pricing up or down nearly a dollar on absolutely no publicly available news?
Many will insist that the stock market is best described as a bunch of gamblers at play, foolishly hoping for the big win. Friends appear to be amazed when I score "the big one." They don't see me at work, poring over SEC filings, PR's & analytical rankings and exploring blogs in search of missed sparks. And it is this disconnect that has me convinced the market is NOT going to reward based on logic alone. Rather, it is for each investor to recalibrate constantly so as to manage ever-changing criteria.
Conspiracy is not a word in my vocabulary. At the same time, I'm increasingly thinking that there are many out there who think otherwise and it is they who observe a stock's price dropping a few cents and it brings them to bail. They fear that there is, indeed, a conspiring group of hedgies and institutional entities positioning themselves to wipe us little guys out for fun and profit.
A seemingly mindless flight for the exits provides some of us with fabulous opportunities as was the case a month ago when NTI could be had for $18. I added. So all is not necessarily lost or wasted on us of logical mind. lol
I'm a committed NTI fan. I strongly believe we will do extremely well with this one. I'm almost 6% underwater but expecting parity within a month or so. To me, this is a logical outcome. Will there be setbacks along the way? Of course! Is it logical to expect things to turn out favorably? It is, but only when we introduce personal opinions to the mix. And opinions can become dangerous when we allow them to completely take over. I've done this with NTI---putting 3/4 of my investible money on the line.
So call me a sucker for trusting my instincts. Or, to put it another way:
I am the captain of my own ship. It may go to hell in a hand-basket but I'm willing to pay for my errors. And chief among them may be items addressed in your last line:
"Just need no unexpected down time and less noise out of DC over Q4. "
You've now heard the gospel according to Jugs---I'd appreciate opinions from others---there's a number of sharp and intuitive significant others on this board with much to say.
Jugs
