is it just me? am i seeing a reiteration of the same 'dilution story' that seems to be the meal du jour of this board? excuse my naivety, but where are the facts to back up the speculation?
i know, i know, the share price sez' so. and there was a VFIN sighting today. well! how about we do some examining of some actual facts. first off, lets look at the years volume. approximately 2B shares have been traded here through the end of September. sounds like a lot, right? no, i don't think so. not when you factor in both the size of the OS and the money value for all those shares. of course, if you believe that buyers never sell in a 'trader's game', then i've got a bridge for you to place in the desert. generally speaking, shares in the market are usually traded no less than 2 to 3 times each in any given year. ya' know, buy and sell. sell to someone who eventually sells too. or does everyone think that the majority of traders hold all for years unto years? seems to me that would be pretty foolish to do so, but most gloom sayers apparently have no faith in their readers. for them, the sky is always falling and everyone better leave immediately; as if that will help the price.
but be that as it may, i intended to look at some facts, few as they may be. and what better facts than looking at those voluminous diluters, the V boys and their kin. so, here's a breakdown of the 5 major sellers here. oh, btw, i used to have an account at a trading house that used VFIN for my shares. and no, those shares were not given to me, i bought and sold them on the open market as retail. anyways, lets see what kind of mass dumpage these mm's have reaped upon us.
VERT 32M
VFIN 81M
VNDM 82M
SUNR 84M
BKRT 155M
hmmm.... that adds up to less than 450M. which, oddly enough, turns out to be nearly the total of shares converted from certificate to street during the time this had the name change from AUCI. it also seems to coincide with roughly the same amount of shares that have come in to the float.
so what does that tell us? simply put, it tells us what we've already been told, the float has increased. and to that i have to ask: is that news to anybody? for goodness sakes, you can't buy what's not available. more to the point, thin stocks have to be traded. they're totally unstable. they run up like a balloon on hot air and drop like rocks tossed over a mountain ledge. that was not AUCI, nor is it RANF. whatever you want to say about this stock, its range locked and given the volume, that implies a certain thickness. now you might think that's not good, and if what you're looking for is a spiked price, then you're right, because you won't get that kind of run. but, it makes this an accumulators play. and in an accumulators play, you have the stability which gives you the opportunity to swing trade the rolls. a buy at .0003 and sell at .0005 is a pretty solid percentage gain. better yet, a sell at .0006 is a double.
say? didn't i just see this stock getting bought at .0003 and sold at .0006? could that be savvy traders taking profit? no, i guess not. they don't know how. has to be dilution. yeah, yeah, that's it. the company is diluting and reaping the benefits in drips and drabs. don't believe its pennies and not dollars? follow the money trail. 70M shares today, less than 35K in dollar value. and this was the sixth or seventh largest volume day of the year. come on! that ain't nothin' compared to the dumpage to be witnessed elsewhere. its peanuts. if they wanted to cash in, there'd be a gazillion shares near daily, 2B shares at .0001 is $200k, and there'd be an r/s on the horizon.
so... where am i going with all this? nowhere. like all other posters i am not trustworthy. its your money. you have to decide for yourself. personally, i believe that the dilution perception here has hurt this stock. but that perception exists in every stock that trades and doesn't take off. patience, generally a virtue, is often eschewed in search of the quick buck. but that rarely comes without a promo and lots and lots of hype. and say what you will, neither the promo nor hype from other than a few IHUB posters appears to be on tap at this moment. iow, it looks to me like this is simply a case where the market has either not yet discovered this play, or has decided that at this point in time this is fair value.
as far as i'm concerned, chart and trading suggest that a bottom is in. but what do i know?
sorry to be so long worded.
good luck to ALL
rich
