ECONOMIC INSIGHT | Updated: 30-Sep-13 | Archive
Briefing.com's analysis and commentary on economic events and conditions.
In the Event of a Government Shutdown - What Economic Data Will Be Released
In the event of a government shutdown, a number of economic releases may be delayed. We outline the reports released by different departments/groups here and present a table at the end that offers a streamlined view of how the economic reporting will be affected.
Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Employment Situation Report***
JOLTS – Job Openings
Import/Export Prices
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Nonfarm Productivity
Employment cost Index
***There is precedent for the BLS to release the September Employment Situation Report on October 4 even if the government is shutdown***
In 1996, the BLS elected to release the CPI report even though the release date came after the government shutdown. All of the data for that report was collected before the shutdown occurred. The BLS was concerned that the data could be leaked to the markets while the BLS was closed. The department deemed the CPI report as an essential function and it was released on schedule. The same technicality could allow the BLS to release the September Employment Situation Report on its regularly scheduled date on Friday even if the BLS is not technically open for business.
Census Bureau:
Construction Spending
Factory Orders
Trade Balance
Wholesale Inventories
Retail Sales
Business Inventories
Housing Starts/Building Permits
New Home Sales
Advance Durable Goods Report
BEA:
GDP
Personal Income and Spending
Treasury Department:
The Treasury Department will be running normal treasury auctions during a government shutdown.
The Treasury Budget and TIC Flows data are expected to be delayed.
Not all of the economic data will be affected during a government shutdown.
Department of Labor:
The Initial Claims data will be released as scheduled. The data is collected by states and not the federal government.
The Federal Reserve is not appropriated by Congress and will be unaffected by a shutdown. The Consumer Credit, Industrial Production, Beige Book, FOMC Minutes, and all Fed manufacturing surveys – New York Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Survey and the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Business Outlook – will be released on schedule.
All private data are expected to be released on time.
ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing Reports
ADP Employment Change
Motor Vehicle Sales data
MBA Mortgage Index
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
NAHB Housing Market Index
Existing Home Sales
Pending Home Sales Index
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey (note: the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators may be delayed because most of the data used for the index will not be reported during a government shutdown)
The table below will be revised as new information is released. If the government reopens prior to any economic report, that data and all that follow should be available as scheduled. The government agencies that have not yet returned our inquiries are listed as unknown at this time.
Economic Release Scheduled Release Date Status of Release in the Event of a Government Shutdown
ISM Manufacturing Index October 1 No Delay
Construction Spending October 1 Delayed
Motor Vehicle Sales October 1 No Delay
MBA Mortgage Index Every Wednesday No Delay
ADP Employment Change October 2 No Delay
Crude Inventories Every Wednesday Unknown
Challenger Job Cuts October 3 No Delay
Initial Claims Every Thursday No Delay
Continuing Claims Every Thursday No Delay
Factory Orders October 3 Delayed
ISM Services Index October 3 No Delay
Natural Gas Inventories Every Thursday Unknown
Employment Situation Report October 4 Unknown
Consumer Credit October 7 No Delay
Trade Balance October 8 Delayed
JOLTS - Job Openings October 8 Delayed
Wholesale Inventories October 9 Delayed
FOMC Minutes October 9 No Delay
Import/Export Prices October 10 Delayed
Treasury Budget October 10 Delayed
Retail Sales October 11 Delayed
PPI October 11 Delayed
U. Michigan Sentiment October 11 Not Delayed
Business Inventories October 11 Delayed
Empire Manufacturing Survey October 15 Not Delayed
CPI October 16 Delayed
Net Long-Term TIC Flows October 16 Delayed
NAHB Housing Market Index October 16 Not Delayed
Fed's Beige Book October 16 Not Delayed
Housing Starts/Permits October 17 Delayed
Industrial Production October 17 Not Delayed
Philly Fed Index October 17 Not Delayed
Leading Indicators October 18 Unknown
Existing Home Sales October 21 Not Delayed
FHFA Housing Price Index October 23 Unknown
New Home Sales October 24 Delayed
Durable Goods Orders October 25 Delayed
Pending Home Sales October 28 Not Delayed
Case-Shiller Index October 29 Not Delayed
Consumer Confidence October 29 Not Delayed
GDP October 30 Delayed
Personal Income/Spending October 31 Delayed
Employment Cost Index October 31 Delayed
Chicago PMI October 31 Not Delayed
Focus Focus Focus Focus !!!!
