Thursday, September 26, 2013 8:54:00 AM
Jobless Claims - huge beat
Released On 9/26/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk9/21, 2013
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 309 K 310 K 330 K 315 K to 370 K 305 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 314.75 K 315.00 K 308.00 K
New Claims - Change 15 K 16 K -5 K
Highlights
The data are stable once again and the story is clear: layoffs are definitely down. Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the September 21 week to a much lower-than-expected total of 305,000. The Econoday consensus was for 330,000 with the low-end forecast at 315,000. Despite two weeks of uncertainty over counting issues in California and Nevada, revisions have been very narrow with the prior week revised only 1,000 higher to 310,000.
With the counting issues, which were tied to computer changes in the two states, now past, the 4-week average looks very clean and is trending significantly lower than the month-ago comparison which is a plus for the September employment outlook. The average is down for a 4th week in row, 7,000 lower in the latest week to 308,000 which is a new recovery low and more than 20,000 below levels in late August.
Continuing claims have also been trending lower though there is an increase in the latest data which are for the September 14 week. Continuing claims rose 35,000 in the week to 2.823 million though the 4-week average is down 42,000 to 2.843 million which is a new recovery low. The unemployment rate for insured workers, however, did tick higher, up 1 tenth from the prior week's recovery low and now back up at 2.2 percent.
A decline in layoffs does not necessarily mean that employers are adding workers, but it is a big plus for confidence and should help limit the number of discouraged workers.
Released On 9/26/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk9/21, 2013
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 309 K 310 K 330 K 315 K to 370 K 305 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 314.75 K 315.00 K 308.00 K
New Claims - Change 15 K 16 K -5 K
Highlights
The data are stable once again and the story is clear: layoffs are definitely down. Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the September 21 week to a much lower-than-expected total of 305,000. The Econoday consensus was for 330,000 with the low-end forecast at 315,000. Despite two weeks of uncertainty over counting issues in California and Nevada, revisions have been very narrow with the prior week revised only 1,000 higher to 310,000.
With the counting issues, which were tied to computer changes in the two states, now past, the 4-week average looks very clean and is trending significantly lower than the month-ago comparison which is a plus for the September employment outlook. The average is down for a 4th week in row, 7,000 lower in the latest week to 308,000 which is a new recovery low and more than 20,000 below levels in late August.
Continuing claims have also been trending lower though there is an increase in the latest data which are for the September 14 week. Continuing claims rose 35,000 in the week to 2.823 million though the 4-week average is down 42,000 to 2.843 million which is a new recovery low. The unemployment rate for insured workers, however, did tick higher, up 1 tenth from the prior week's recovery low and now back up at 2.2 percent.
A decline in layoffs does not necessarily mean that employers are adding workers, but it is a big plus for confidence and should help limit the number of discouraged workers.
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