Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

That's interesting math but it's better to use income expenses, sales estimates etc...

The sales figures you talk about are only reasonable with Reduce It Success which is several years away and unknown results at this time.

They need over 20K weekly scripts to break even-lets concentrate on a time frame for that to happen.

Marine should be doing 13K by end of 2014 assuming no major setbacks due to generic Lovaza or Omthera competition(which I personally think will not be a issue) and assuming the current pace of script growth stays the same. Lots of assumptions but nothing else we can do.

It will likely take a full year to get Marine to 7,000 scripts so we can assume Anchor should at least match Marine and get to 7,000 scripts weekly by end 2014 so worst case SHOULD be Q1 2015 profitability with GIA scenario.

You'd expect better Anchor sales than marine due to larger market but don't really know what that multiple should be, On the flip side you have 2014 ending discounts and coupons and if Tier 2 is not widespread you may lose some scripts due to cost. The again, Tier 2 should expand greatly after 1 year in the market so scripts could accelerate in 2014.

So I think we can safely say break even in Q1 2015 and we MIGHT sneak out 3Q or 4Q 2014 with a profit if Anchor sales accelerate faster than marine. Of course we have much higher interest payments starting in 2014 but still think 20K plus weekly scripts gets them close.