Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Blackbelt1]

Cash: My question is simple and clear. I'm referring to the 20-week cycle anticipated December 2004. What language would you use to describe what happened then--when the amplitude usually associated with a 20-week low occurred at the following 5-week low in January 2005?

My question is framed using language and assumptions made by Airedale--that the 20-week low actually came in in December 2004 and that the following 5-week low in January 2005 came in with increased amplitude.

An alternative interpretation might be that the 20-week low came in later than expected (January 2005) and that all smaller cycles were reset.

My question is simply this: How do you explain the fact that the market delivered a significant market low substantially later than expected?

Whatever language you use to describe what occurred last year in December 2004/January 2005, I will feed back to you now. I will use the same language to frame my hypothesis that the amplitude normally associated with the 40-week and 80-week low lies in our immediate future (within the next 10 weeks). I am saying there is a real possibility that the full effects will arrive later than expected. Later than what the 5-week and 10-week cycle lows would have suggested because they *were* anticipated in the first week of January 2006.

Before I present my case, however, I want to be extremely clear that there is indeed evidence both in the Airedale literature and in the market record that such events (shall we call it delayed amplitude?) can and does occur.

BB