Short Term Trading Member Forum

[mr_cash4]

blackbelt, I am sorry to say that I simply do not understand your question - Jan-3-06 was clearly both the 5w and 10w low, so it's either a 20w low as well, or the 20w low will arrive at the next 10w low, ideally due early March.

however, if you read cyclical theory, you will see that large cycles (in this case 80w cycle) can cut short smaller cylces (in this case 20w cycle) and "re-set" them - that would be the "strict" nesting theory of cycles that Hurst went to in his course.

otherwise, we are saying that the 20w cycle is independent of all other cycle, and that it will arrive at the next 10w low ideally due early March - but the 80w cycle has 4x more "power" than the 20w cycle, and the 20w cycle is right now merely just past its mid-point, so the 20w cycle at this point (if this scenario is true) is just acting neutral and not contributing either way to the cyclical forces, whereas the 80w cycle is STRONG UP position.

same "problem" with the 20w cycle was at the Mar-03 80w (and 4-4.5 year cycle low) - from Sep-01 80w low to Mar-03 80w low, there are CLEARLY seven (7) 10w cycles within the (nominal) 80w cycle - so, where are the 20w cycles in that structure? not sure, but don't really care.