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Re: Biobillionair post# 13255

Friday, 08/30/2013 2:01:50 PM

Friday, August 30, 2013 2:01:50 PM

Post# of 426292
Not sure how you figure? Based on Open Interest?

Options pretty much come into play if it is near a strike price heading into the last few days before expiry. Otherwise, the effect they have on the stock the rest of the time is minimal.

The MM's in the options hedge against the positions but MM's also like to maximize the options that expire without conversion.

The 6's are even on Puts and Calls so MM;s don't care about 6's.

The Sept 7's have 9.5 times the Put OI so if it is near 7 at expiration they will try to peg it just under or on to avoid converting all that stock. This is very likely as there is no news expected until Adcom barring surprise NCE decision before Adcom.

So, barring news, which trumps all, the options suggest MM's will let the trend continue and if the trend brings it to 7, they will hold it down just under 7 until after September 20 but, again, they hedge positions so if there is news or strong buying moves it past 7 options will hve little bearing on the stock price.

October has huge call OI in the 6's and 7's and high Put OI at the 5 so clearly lots of hedging going on for the Adcom. MM''s have already put themselves in position to win/win so despite the large $6 call OI it would not come into play unless Stock was near 6 at expiry.
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