Captain's Quarters

[gharma]

Tracking Rabbits in the Sand
In prior posting
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=91128421
I did not mention, but absolutely should have, that the lower single dollar 0.3 - 0.8 dual range has been much more important than the higher dollar one, with the higher acting more as an indicator and/or confirmation.

So last weekend silver held with the Friday low/high close straddling the A range 23.3 low boundary.
This Friday closed with silver high/low both below, but marginally so, the A range's upper dollar band, i.e below but near 24.3
If you caught the message in the prior post, what is most important imo is the intraday action, what levels get tested. From what I saw 24.3 or above was never touched last week. Had it, particularly if it had moved above 24.4, I would take that as indication that the dial is set for above (even if barely) the A range. That it did not imo does not mean the dial is not set that way however, and here is why.
Last monday, before NY silver spiked to 23.63 but pulled back significantly before NY open. During the day silver slide back, in fact during trade both Monday and Tuesday appeared like it was going to test the 21s, but both days during trade it spiked back to the 23.6+ level - but did not test the .7-.8 boundary.
I was not free to watch Wed and Thur very closely but from what I saw it appeared that silver was in a pretty stable pattern of testing the A range from below, moving into the 22s and retouching 23.3+/- from below.
Friday was different. When the rapid move came it went straight through the 23-3-23.4 subrange and bounced on the bottom of the 23.7-23.8 subrange for an extended time. In my mind this all reconfirmed the signals of Monday and Tuesday after the week allowing the market to drift at A range entry. When the 23 subranges breached silver was almost immediately holding close below the 24.3 mark for the upper A subrange, pulling back only a little for the weekend close.
The area above the A range was never tested. The confirming uppermost 24.7 - 24.8 subrange was never touched, and from what I saw 24.3 was almost but never touched. The appearance is that the momentum is much unchanged and strong on the part of the dial setting with silver willing to drift lower when left to its own devices (i.e. without dial enforcement).
My own gut level comparison to history is saying that if we do not see a test of exit of A range to the upside in the coming trading week then we are seeing the setting up for the price to ride in the A range for a while, and if so then likely retesting downside exit in order to strengthen the A range as a new floor, likely in prep for a move upward (which would be presaged by tests of A range upside exits, first showing up in brief spikes days to week+ timelines ahead of the move).
There is much importance sitting on tests of the top of A range at this time. A period of only minor tests to upper exit and back toward lowest A subrange boundary would confirm the dial is to middle of A range for now.
All jmo, and if history repeats itself.