Captain's Quarters

[gharma]

Pulling Rabbits from a Hat

I am going to share here my observation on one key aspect of silver motion that has held true over the past 2+ years.
I am only a person that has been a silver bull since when silver was still being minted, not an analyst, not an anything, but you should pretend at least as far as the normal "past performance is no guarantee of future results" disclaimer.

There are the two key ranges:
A)
23.30 - 23.40 and 23.70 - 23.80
24.30 - 24.40 and 24.70 - 24.80

B)
27.30 - 27.40 and 27.70 - 27.80
28.30 - 28.40 and 28.70 - 28.80

( ( (
although there is a further one which with regrets we probably won't be dealing for at least a little while

C)
33.30 - 33.40 and 33.70 - 33.80
34.30 - 34.40 and 34.70 - 34.80

Except to getting stuck in the C) range during the fall from the 30s-50 for a while the C) range mostly has operated as a gateway telling whether Ag would go back to 35+ or drop to the B) range. However, given how long this C) was a home range for Ag in the final stage of the post $50 consolidation before Ag finally moved to the B) range I am expecting this C) range to be more important in the future compared to just being a gateway visited over maybe a day or week testing whether Ag should be 35+ or in B).
) ) )

on the way down it is the .30-40 that resists most
on the way up it is the .70-.80 that resists most

the length of time caught in one of these single dollar .3 - .8 ranges is meaningful as is the time within an adjacent two dollar .3 - .8 range

over the past couple years major moves always had pause at these, usually for a noticable time (days to weeks)

once passed moves that direction of approx 20% were fast, although not necessarily in a straight line

once past the B) range one would see, in very short time, Ag change
to upside
first to the C) range pretty quickly, but usually either moving through or bouncing back off of it (all prior to the final consolidation residence in C)
breaking above this C) has too few instances for pattern, but 35-37 was common, and 40 and 50 resist
to downside the fall is to the A) range pretty directly

for the A) range, once past, again pretty quickly one would see
to the upside the B) range
to the downside the resistance seems at the 20 and 18 areas

but the key part imo is not so much what has happened when breaking to the upside or downside of these ranges, but the behavior shown when approaching and at these ranges.

one has to look at the minute by minute charts to really see this, but as far as I have seen there are tests, maybe only for a few minutes, or hours, or just touches or momentary punches through lasting only long enough to not show on the charts but set intraday highs or lows, etc.

An example is this past week silver was delaying in 21 and 22 but overnight briefly punched 23.3 by a few cents. Very briefly. Friday overnight (before US open) it was pretty strong at 23.3 +/- for a while but most important is that it punched past 23.4, then it fell way back into the high 22s etc and during US trade it hit stride for a while 23.33 or so bid 23.43 or so ask, but it punched clear to 23.53 (.5x iirc .53) briefly after having earlier set an intraday high at .44 before falling out of the 23s for a while prior to regaining the saddle between .3 and .4 (which it when it tested into the area above the 23s part of the A) range, i.e. hit 23.5+ briefly).
That punching of .4 repeatedly following a trading day when it was significantly below in 21/22 area but touched 23.3 indicates to me that there is a good chance we will be playing with the 23.8 upward
If we move through that fast, instead of bouncing around 23.7-23.8 or sitting in the 23.3-23.8 saddle for a while, then behavior at the 24s in past has indicated if we are moving to 27-28 or if we are going to be 23-24 rangebound for a while when strong, or fall if weak and not breaking past the .8 at all or with any strenth.

Now mind you, you cannot look at graphs of London spot, or US close, etc.
Example, suppose ailver is 23-24 range bound. That might mean over a couple weeks it drifts back and forth between mostly 23.3-23.4 and 24.7-24.8 mostly between them, rarely hitting outside. But prior to breaking out in a move you will see the edge of the range in direction of the break tested, sometimes a few times before a brief punch through it, but once that has happened there is a good chance it is not very long before that range is turned to a resistance against reversal. The punches past that fail are usually pretty obvious with the pull back to well within the range quick and far with little motion back toward the penetrated boundary.

Pull up some charts and you will see the A) and B) areas have been pause points for virtually every swing over the past couple years.

What I have tried to pass along is what I have seen by watching daily charts as days go by over the those same years.
My assumption is that the banksters' computers and the quants algorithms have something about the 23-24, 27-28, and 33-34, and also the two ten cent ranges centered on those dollar ranges' x.55 +/- .20 (i.e the .3-.4 and .7-.8) just as they seem to key in on the AU/AG ratio and let AG pull AU along when needed to keep the ratio from decreasing too fast (as imo has been happening this past week+)
I have not seen this with .5-.6, .2-.3, etc. I have not noticed this frequent pausing with other dollar figures.

Example, think back to the long slow decline after the fall from 50.
At first Ag spent a lot of time 35+ trying to regain 40, but it bounced off C) many times doing so, then Ag spent a lot of time sitting in either the C) or B) ranges, and moving between them, with a few drops to A) and back to B), but finally got stuck in the C) range, then fell to the B) range, and when the takedown came there was a pause, but only barely at the A) range that actually extended to include 22, but there was a pause, and once that breached Ag was below 20 in no time, just like it covered the ground from the B) to the A) in no time. (Thankfully that takedown did not test the low 18 area)

Cheers, and knock on wood, as now that I am posting this probably everything will be different - ha.

If not I can only say that there is no confirmation as the move from below 20 has been so fast and direct to the 23.3-23.4 but it has already tested and retested moving toward the 24 ranges in A).
It would not be surprising at this point to see it pull back and make sure of its move into the A) space, in which case how long it takes to reconfirm would be a key factor. With the speed for the rise to the bottom of the A) and the testing of entering within A) also would make it no surprise to see us in there or even into the ground between A) and B) very soon. We have only had about 18 or 24 hours of trade action where A) was in play so this is early but breaking fast right to what has been my touchstone for a couple years, and I do take the Friday close with bid/ask straddling the very base of the A) as highly important (first close back at a touchstone in a long time, plus a Friday close at that). Seeing a move to barely above A) and bounce back on it and/or into it and back above would not be abnormal either. Once it is clear Ag is moving above the A)range in the past has virtually always meant Ag would be at B) in short order.

That attempt to press AU and AG down that was mounted a week plus ago didn't manage to do much -% change or hold it there except very briefly so it is looking like it may be time to get the thumb out and catch a ride.

Cheers, and knock on wood
glta