InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[Alley]

I'm back...with some thoughts....

GEE....I can't leave you folks a week ... without all Hxll breaking loose.....
JUST KIDDING..... JUST KIDDING.....

I have just reviewed a few pasts posts to try to get a handle of the significance of the recent IDCC decline in price while I was away. I have several thoughts...

1.. Re insider selling
Suggestion.....do not use insider selling as a barometer for news announcements or true stock value.........it is generally unreliable......IMHO.
FACT: I have seen no valuable pattern in recent IDCC insider selling worth relying on.....
[]After the announcement of trial date change there was insider selling.....
[]Prior to the settlement there was insider selling......
It is unfortunate that the recent surge in price was followed by a flurry of insider selling. The effect of insider selling along with some questions raised in the 10k created an emotional moment of uncertainty.

FACT: It would make no sense for mgm't to sell prior to any serious problem. The legal consequences would be severe.


2. CONSOLIDATION + VOLATILITY +RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

-----------------------------RE: CONSOLIDATION ...
prior to leaving on vacation I SAID

Excerpt from my post 3/29/2003 STOCK CLOSED AT 22.69
We are due for a little consolidation ... certainly from a technical point of view we are in overbought territory. In any case we could trade as low as 21.70 [support] in the short term....below that would be the 18 to 19 support area
...in any case focus on the facts.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=879811

WE ARE IN AN 18-20 TRADING RANGE.............MOMENTARILY....

Excerpt from my post 3/29/2003
When we had our initial surge [AT SETTLEMENT].we pulled back 2 points from 19.99 to 18.
I will not be concerned about any pull backs until there is a strong FUNDAMENTAL reason to be concerned. Can anyone please identify any FUNDAMENTAL reason why IDCC should stay below 22 for any sustained period of time.
The facts are the facts....this is the beginning....NOT THE END
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=879811


MY THOUGHTS NOW....
This was a bit more than a technical consolidation. IMHO it was caused by an emotional reaction to insider selling and questions arising from the 10k. This reaction took place a time that we were already looking to consolidate technically so that helped things along.....thus an overreaction. Stop limit orders were initiated, panic selling kicked in, shorts were pushing, negative momentum took control, weak hands buckled ,some institutions may have lightened up a bit...and away we went from overbought to oversold.....end of story....not quite....

-------------------------------RE: VOLATILITY
Excerpt from my post #15588 3/26/2003
Be prepared for swings in price of a dollar and as much as five in any given day. Short squeezes which are inevitable will push the stock up just as short pressure in the past has kept it down.....and the shorts will not give up without a fight.....poor souls

EXPLANATION
I would like to explain this point with a bit more detail. While a stock is on a forward trajectory it will consolidate...back and fill...the more exaggerated the moves in a short
time frame the greater the potential for volatility. Certain external forces can serve to exaggerate the normal moves of a stock causing extreme swings both up and down....volatility [news,insider selling, unanswered 10k questions, the signing of a new licensee, the initiation of new coverage etc.} .


EXAMPLES:
In '99'
after patent re affirmation there was strong positive momentum ... then the "Baby Qualcomm" article showed up ... and everybody wanted a piece of the action.and jumped ON..... The stock flew....

In 2003 .....Mar-17-03
ERICYwas settled and future revenues were publicly disclosed by management for the first time...40% rise in price....there was strong positive momentum
Date----------Open-----High-----Low----------Close------
Mar-17-03---16.71-----19.70---16.67-----------19.54-----
Volume 6,413,400

Excerpt from my post 3/29/2003
When we had our initial surge [AT SETTLEMENT].we pulled back 2 points from 19.99 to 18.
I will not be concerned about any pull backs until their is a strong FUNDAMENTAL reason to be concerned.
The facts are the facts....this is the beginning....NOT THE END
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=879811

RICH FAGAN, INTERDIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS, CFO:
"If you take ..., the potential, aggregate cash flow from Ericsson, Sony-Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung in the next twelve months could be 360-430 million dollars WITH ADDITIONAL UPSIDE. Those are impressive numbers "

TOM CARPENTER to RICH FAGAN
IDCC WILL HAVE $9 to $10 in cash a share

''Rich, based on your current cash position...... [With this settlement--WITHOUT considering any new licensees and business partners idcc will have] idcc will have nine or ten dollars a share in cash. Is that correct?''
RICH FAGAN ''Tom, I won't disagree with you there.''
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=848232

In 2003 .... Apr-01-03
insider selling was reported ... the 10k followed and some investors started questioning the language....indemnify etc..........momentum reversed in uncertainty.....
Date----------Open-----High-----Low----------Close------
Apr-01-03---22.09--- 22.30---- 18.60----------18.75----
Volume 5,405,900

recently someone wrote....
Alley: Hummm IDCC might pull back, might jump up.

If the news last week was IDCC receives 120 million from Nokia.The stock could have easily jumped up 5 points or more....WITH inside selling. The point is....we are at a strategic moment ... unless the fundamentals have significantly changed the stock is headed up.

Any news is apt to cause exaggerated short term moves.....up or down.......
Exaggerated emotion based stock moves will prove to be nothing more than buying opportunities.

---------------------------RE: RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT
Excerpt from my post #15588 3/26/2003
There will be lulls that may make you anxious...keep the facts in front of you....we are not trading with a cloud over our head. Zacks didn't put a buy rating out because they think it's time to sell
There MAY perhaps be some gaps to fill causing some gut wrenching volatlity,but I do not see that as an issue at this point. We have removed that clouds that have kept us on the ground.

FOR NOW......IMHO
We will possibly remain in a tight trading range for the short term lows in the 18's highs in the 20 's ...20.85 being minor resistance....be prepared for some weakness on light volume....shorts will use low volume to keep the ball in their court....imho there are people playing this stock....buying on the dips ... shortening on the spikes. At the end of the day .....holding a short position in this sock is like holding a lit stick of dynamite without seeing the fuse betting you can hold it longer than anyone.....before it blows your hand off.

I believe some of our institutional investors may have lightened up a bit during that last downdraft....if so ... it's momentary

Excerpt from my post #2/26/2003
I have some concern regarding the resolve of some of our less knowledgeable shareholders who might begin a chain reaction in an emotional market downdraft ... At that point some of our institutional supporters might lighten up a bit and exacerbate the effect.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=797361
In this case it was not necessarily market conditions

This recent sell off....will only strengthen our next move up....weak hands move over...smart money is accumulating this puppy...........RIGHT NOW.

THE FUTURE...
We will break 21.70 which is our key resistance...and be back in the mid 20's soon.

I can remember saying........ "look at your GAINS in 60 days"
Excerpt from my post 1/27/2003
"...look at the price of stock today and look at your GAINS in 90 days. At today's price you can look at your gains in 60 days...perhaps 30 days "
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=712920

DATE -------------------------------------SHARE PRICE
Jan-27------------------------------------ 12.41
March 27 60 days LATER ------------------- 23.31 A 90% + MOVE
April 27 90 days LATER ------------------- fill in the blank ?

Excerpt from my post 1/27/2003
If we do HALF AS WELL %wise as we did the last time I posted ---- ----------------- " look at your GAINS in 60 days"-------------
....We will be at about 33+ on June 27. If we do as well we will be at about 44.28
In either case in that period of time....the returns will be IMPRESSIVE.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=876153
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=712920



Excerpt from my post 3/29/2003
I will not be concerned about any pull backs until their is a strong FUNDAMENTAL reason to be concerned. Can anyone please identify any FUNDAMENTAL reason why IDCC should stay below 22 for any sustained period of time.
There will be people ... who will see what they perceive as weakness, identify it ... sell into it...then solicit acceptance from members of the board for their wisdom. Their will be others with devious personal agendas who will attempt to exploit a weak moment in order to create a sense of doubt in some investors with the hope that they might sell thus strengthening a short position.
The facts are the facts....this is the beginning..NOT THE END
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=879811


MY MANTRA FOR TONIGHT
------------------ " look at your GAINS in 60 days"-------------

BEST TO ALL
As always your comments are much appreciated ............ Alley