Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

Do you have someplace that 40% is referenced?

"40% of Lovaza patients discontinue its use in the first year"

With almost any prescriptions there is a standard fallout just because people decide not to renew, that # will be similar for Vascepa but not sure what that # is though I heard 25% is not uncommon which then leaves only 15% that Lovaza is missing out on due to side effects, assuming that 40% has any basis in fact. Also assuming 25% has some basis in fact.

So not sure there is much value Vascepa can gain based on that. Below is what Lovaza studies show for side effects:

Burping -- in up to 4.9 percent of people
Infections -- up to 4.4 percent
Flu symptoms (such as fever or chills) -- up to 3.5 percent
Indigestion or heartburn -- up to 3.1 percent
Taste changes -- up to 2.7 percent
Back pain -- up to 2.2 percent.

Even adding all that up I get only 20.8% and burping I can't imagine is so severe people stop the drug. So that's 15% without that and that's assuming these are all different people and symptoms severe enough to stop taking.

Vascepa had 2% side effects, same as Placebo so Best case scenario I see is about 13% of the people taking Lovaza that had to stop that might be marketable for Vascepa.

So out of 1 billion they are missing 130 million potential income due to side effects. Material? Maybe but Lovaza also had no competition for years and Vascepa has Lovaza now and generic in 2015 so could that cost Vascepa 130 million?

Overall not seeing this info as a big material increase in the overall market.