I think the markets are as big as they say but they will not realize that size of the market unless reduce it is positive. Doctors are in love with statins and have outcome study to show it helps. Realistically the same market for statins would be for AMRN if reduce it is positive. However you have some doctors that are fine with no fish oil and just statins so that percent of the market is out until Reduce it , then you have the established Lovaza which has been out for years and in combo with statins has been working in the eyes of the doctors an their patients so why switch? Then you have tha for 60 or more percent of people it is cheaper on their insurance to have Lovaza.
Lovaza has 1 billion US but is probably light in Anchor indication because is off label so a percent of doctors will just not prescribe off label so market potential should be much higher. Once Anchor is approved Vascepa should move to being cheaper than Lovaza, that is one thing a BP partner could help with, getting insurance to deny any Lovaza off label script reimbursement and forcing the switch to Vascepa, I am concerned AMRN with no partner will not have the pull with insurance companies to pull that off quickly.
So before Reduceit I think you can get 2-3 billion peak sales, if REDUCEIT is positive the large market they talk about suddenly becomes fact and 10 billion peak sales is reasonable. how fast they get to peak sales is 100 percent about Anchor launch and partner and insurance cost.
We can go from higher cost, same market and small green sales force, to lower cost, larger market and experienced BP sales force. That is the Anchor challenge and should be the goal from day 1 of Anchor launch. The right partner is worth a ton regardless of selling the asset short, management has to get an experienced sales force through a partner.
