Script numbers mildly disappointing at 4507. Still looking for the "bump" with tier 2 coverage.
The miss was in new scripts as it was lower in new scripts than it was Week Ending 6/28 and 6/14 so no new upward momentum from Tier 2 coverage. When we see that # getting better each week we know Tier 2 has started to have an effect.
Second week of July is heavy with vacation also so some effect there on new scripts. If they had gotten 2800 new scripts, a bump from a few weeks ago we would be at 4750 which is about where I estimated based on trend. I hoped for 5K as I hoped to see an up-kick in the trend for new scripts.
3Q revenue estimates should come down after 2 Q CC and with these type of script #'s. At this pace we are looking for 3Q at 20 million tops. Could be as low as 15 million.
4Q gets 19-25 million range unless pace picks up so looking at 50 million this year in sales if pace does not start to increase.
Same pace gives you 119 million from Marine in 2014.
So new estimates of sales at current pace
2Q 2013: 10.4
3Q 2013: 17.5
4Q 2013: 20.0
2013 Year: 50.2
2014 Year Marine: 119 million
Anchor will have the full year also, they will have 5 times the sales force, so you have to expect some multiple of Marine, at 5 times marine sales of 2013 you get 250 million Anchor and 118 million Marine or 368 million.
44 cents a share for 2014 at 15 P/E is 6.60 per share.
If Anchor does 5 times 2014 Marine Sales or 595 million you get 1.29 per share and 15 P/E is 19.35 per share stock price so huge range totally dependent on Anchor and then if there is a partner and sales do not go even higher you need to split off some of that revenue to the partner(though also lowering expenses)
AGAIN, this is IF CURRENT pace is maintained and Anchor sales for first year are 5 times Marine sales for first year. I would expect trend would increase as more tier 2 and expect large Anchor increases due to Lovaza having 600-700 million off label that should be forced to go to Vascepa. Once we start seeing better trend and pace of scripts can adjust #'s but going along as we are now AKA worst case scenario I think is accurate above.
