Some perspective is in order:
Stock price is down to $5 area which, if you are long, means you should have held off on buying the stock, shorts were right, reasoning aside, they called the stock price drop.
Many of us, I believe, were in AMRN expecting a BO before Marine launch. Once that did not happen, possibly due to NCE delay, possibly due to the high price JZ set, this turned into a long term investment. It also turned into a business judged on profitability and sales and balance sheet and other financial information that was really unimportant in a BO scenario.
Vascepa as a drug seem spectacular, the product they are selling seems, to people analyzing the science just an incredible product. There is a severe issue with lumping Vascepa in with "fish oil" supplements and Lovaza. The issue AMRN has now is they are a "prescription" drug for High trig only. It is very hard for them to rebut every fish oil study and story out there to physicians and the population ONLY being able to advertise to the Marine population and cardiologists of the same.
It would be a waste of money for a large educational and advertising campaign at this point. Once Anchor is approved then the whole ballgame changes.
We are 3 months from Adcom, which should give a strong indication toward approval, and then 5 months from Anchor approval and "launch". At that point education of the public and doctors becomes absolutely crucial. With the science out there should be 100% conversion from Lovaza to Vascepa.
Unfortunately this is a 2014 story, unfortunately this has turned into and Anchor story. There will be no BO before Anchor is launched. Many of us looking for the quick BO now have to deal with looking out to mid-2014 for something along those lines to come back into play.
Outside of this recent dilution(which management timed poorly-should have done sooner) management has done a very good job overall. They seem like competent management with a great product. To me that eventually leads to success.
Worrying about day to day stock price is meaningless as it all comes down to Anchor approval, launch decisions and Anchor sales. Nobody selling or buying today knows how that will play out. So worrying about the stock price does nobody any good these days. People need to accept the fact it's all about Anchor and until Anchor approval and then launch details and then sales, the stock price is meaningless.
As I've stated before I've not added since last year, will wait for August CC, at least, before adding. May wait until Anchor Adcom and then Anchor launch details. I am confident good management and a good product will lead to big things and can wait, people really need that attitude or this stock will stress you to an early grave.
The science says this is an all-time, top of the line, one of a kind drug. If REDUCE IT is successful, as science seems to indicate it will be, then longs will have their day in the sun, just need to wait it out.
With that in mind Anchor should make AMRN profitable in 2014, stock price should reflect that. A proper Anchor launch and no issues, a failure with Anchor launch and management needs to go. Seems simple enough but I'm sure people will fret about the daily stock price regardless of these facts.
AI
