Thursday, July 11, 2013 8:53:11 AM
Jobless Claims
Released On 7/11/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk7/6, 2013
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 343 K 344 K 337 K 325 K to 360 K 360 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 345.50 K 345.75 K 351.75 K
New Claims - Change -5 K -4 K 16 K
Highlights
Initial jobless claims shot up but the July 6th week is filled with special factors. Claims jumped 16,000 to a 360,000 level that is far above the Econoday consensus for 337,000 and right at the high-end estimate. The 4-week average is up a sizable 6,000 to 351,750 which, against the month-ago comparison, is also up 6,000 in a reading that doesn't point to improvement underway in the labor market.
But now the special factors! First is the holiday shortened week followed by summer retooling in the auto sector, which is now getting underway, as well as the end of the school year. All these factors make today's report very hard to read.
The latest data for continuing claims are for the June 29 week and the results are mixed. Continuing claims rose 24,000 to 2.977 million but the 4-week average is down 3,000 to just make a new recovery low of 2.971 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at a recovery low of 2.3 percent.
Not just this week but all the weeks in July will be hard to read for initial claims, the result largely of the auto sector. Still, today's jump in initial claims isn't going to give any boost to the jobs outlook.
Released On 7/11/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk7/6, 2013
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 343 K 344 K 337 K 325 K to 360 K 360 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 345.50 K 345.75 K 351.75 K
New Claims - Change -5 K -4 K 16 K
Highlights
Initial jobless claims shot up but the July 6th week is filled with special factors. Claims jumped 16,000 to a 360,000 level that is far above the Econoday consensus for 337,000 and right at the high-end estimate. The 4-week average is up a sizable 6,000 to 351,750 which, against the month-ago comparison, is also up 6,000 in a reading that doesn't point to improvement underway in the labor market.
But now the special factors! First is the holiday shortened week followed by summer retooling in the auto sector, which is now getting underway, as well as the end of the school year. All these factors make today's report very hard to read.
The latest data for continuing claims are for the June 29 week and the results are mixed. Continuing claims rose 24,000 to 2.977 million but the 4-week average is down 3,000 to just make a new recovery low of 2.971 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at a recovery low of 2.3 percent.
Not just this week but all the weeks in July will be hard to read for initial claims, the result largely of the auto sector. Still, today's jump in initial claims isn't going to give any boost to the jobs outlook.
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